Dorian Update ... And A Look Back At Early Predictions

Former hurricane Dorian ravaged the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The Daily Mail reports:

      A weakened Hurricane Dorian flooded homes on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Friday with a fury that took even storm-hardened residents by surprise, forcing people to climb into their attics. Hundreds were feared trapped by high water, and neighbors used boats to rescue one another.

      Medics and other rescuers rushed to Ocracoke Island - accessible only by boat or air - to reach those who made the mistake of defying mandatory evacuation orders along the 200-mile ribbon of low-lying islands.

      'We are flooding like crazy,' Ocracoke Island bookshop owner Leslie Lanier texted. 'I have been here 32 years and not seen this.'

      Its winds down to 90mph, Dorian howled over the Outer Banks as a far weaker storm than the brute that wreaked havoc on the Bahamas at the start of the week. Just when it looked as if its run up the Southeast coast was coming to a relatively quiet end, the Category 1 hurricane sent seawater surging over neighborhoods, flooding the first floors of many homes, even ones on stilts.

CBS news also reports:

      Despite a mandatory evacuation order for Ocracoke Island, an estimated 800 people were still in their homes Friday when the Category 1 storm slammed into the tiny barrier island. Search and rescue teams went door to door, sometimes by boat, to check on residents looking for help.

      Elsewhere in North Carolina, Dorian damaged parts of the main highway on the Outer Banks. Several sections of the road were buckled by the waves. State officials say it could take weeks to fix the roads. Flooded roads and downed power lines also made getting around a problem.

      The storm apparently is picking up power again, moving up into category 2 strength again, as it heads toward Nova Scotia, Canada. This Daily Mail report has a video of a construction crane collapsing in Canada. And the current storm track is as follows:

      But while the devastation in the Bahamas is terrifying, it could have been a lot worse for the United States. If we go back a week, some of the storm models were suggesting that the then-Hurricane could hit Florida and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, impacting the Northern Gulf Coast. For instance, there is this NOAA prediction from August 29, 2019:

A news report from August 30, 2019, noted that storm trackers believed that the storm would make landfall in Florida, but possibly slightly farther north in Georgia, but it was uncertain whether it would head west or turn north. It continues:

       The trend today has also been to slow down Dorian’s progress as it nears Florida and after landfall. The official forecast track shows Dorian coming onshore Monday night -- but only moving as far inland as central Florida 24 hours later. That slow movement could subject Florida to even more of Dorian’s wind, rain and surge and magnify the impacts.

       It’s also too early to say for sure if Dorian could cross the Florida peninsula and end up in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Weather Service in Mobile was watching the situation closely and cautioned that it is still too early to determine if Alabama or the northern Gulf Coast will have to deal with any impacts from the storm.

Thus, we could have seen the hurricane cross Florida and then smash into southern Georgia and Alabama. Instead, and fortunately for the United States, the storm stalled over the Bahamas before taking a northern tack.