Understanding the China-Japan Island Conflict

Stratfor has an analysis of the China-Japan island conflict and its history.

For decades, Tokyo and Beijing generally abided by a tacit agreement to keep the islands dispute quiet. Japan agreed not to carry out any new construction or let anyone land on the islands; China agreed to delay assertion of any claim to the islands and not let the dispute interfere with trade and political relations. Although flare-ups occurred, usually triggered by some altercation between the Japanese coast guard and Chinese fishing vessels or by nationalist Japanese or Chinese activists trying to land on the islands, the lingering territorial dispute played only a minor role in bilateral relations.

However, Ishihara's plans for the Tokyo municipal government to take over the islands and eventually build security outposts there forced the Japanese government's hand. Facing domestic political pressure to secure Japan's claim to the islands, the government determined that the "nationalization" of the islands was the least contentious option. By keeping control over construction and landings, the central government would be able to keep up its side of the tacit agreement with China on managing the islands.

China saw Japan's proposed nationalization as an opportunity to exploit. Even as Japan was debating what action to take, China began stirring up anti-Japanese sentiment and Beijing tacitly backed the move by a group of Hong Kong activists in August to sail to and land on the disputed islands. At the same time, Beijing prevented a Chinese-based fishing vessel from attempting the same thing, using Hong Kong's semi-autonomous status as a way to distance itself from the action and retain greater flexibility in dealing with Japan.

As expected, the Japanese coast guard arrested the Hong Kong activists and impounded their ship, but Tokyo also swiftly released them to avoid escalating tensions. Less than a month later, after Japan's final decision to purchase the islands from their private Japanese owner, anti-Japanese protests swept China, in many places devolving into riots and vandalism targeting Japanese products and companies. Although many of these protests were stage-managed by the government, the Chinese began to clamp down when some demonstrations got out of control. While still exploiting the anti-Japanese rhetoric, Chinese state-run media outlets have highlighted local governments' efforts to identify and punish protesters who turned violent and warn that nationalist pride is no excuse for destructive behavior.

Presently, both China and Japan are working to keep the dispute within manageable parameters after a month of heightened tensions.

* * *

China is struggling with the new role of the military in its foreign relations, while Japan is seeing a slow re-emergence of the military as a tool of its foreign relations. China's two-decade-plus surge in economic growth is reaching its logical limit, yet given the sheer size of China's population and its lack of progress switching to a more consumption-based economy, Beijing still has a long way to go before it achieves any sort of equitable distribution of resources and benefits. This leaves China's leaders facing rising social tensions with fewer new resources at their disposal. Japan, after two decades of society effectively agreeing to preserve social stability at the cost of economic restructuring and upheaval, is now reaching the limits of its patience with a bureaucratic system that is best known for its inertia.

Both countries are seeing a rise in the acceptability of nationalism, both are envisioning an increasingly active role for their militaries, and both occupy the same strategic space. With Washington increasing its focus on the Asia-Pacific region, Beijing is worried that a resurgent Japan could assist the United States on constraining China in an echo of the Cold War containment strategy.

We are now seeing the early stage of another shift in Asian power. It is perhaps no coincidence that the 1972 re-establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan followed U.S. President Richard Nixon's historic visit to China. The Senkaku/Diaoyu islands were not even an issue at the time, since they were still under U.S. administration. Japan's defense was largely subsumed by the United States, and Japan had long ago traded away its military rights for easy access to U.S. markets and U.S. protection. The shift in U.S.-China relations opened the way for the rapid development of China-Japan relations.

The United States' underlying interest is maintaining a perpetual balance between Asia's two key powers so neither is able to challenging Washington's own primacy in the Pacific. During World War II, this led the United States to lend support to China in its struggle against imperial Japan. The United States' current role backing a Japanese military resurgence against China's growing power falls along the same line. As China lurches into a new economic cycle, one that will very likely force deep shifts in the country's internal political economy, it is not hard to imagine China and Japan's underlying geopolitical balance shifting again. And when that happens, so too could the role of the United States.

Taiwan and Japan Duel...

... using water cannons.

Two coastguard patrol boats blasted each other with water cannon as tensions escalated over the ownership of a tiny group of rocky islands in the South China Sea.

The Japanese vessel opened fire on its Taiwanese rival as the ship encroached on the disputed land - which is also claimed by China - earlier today.

In a bid to repel the approaching flotilla, they opened fire with their powerful water arsenal. But the Taiwanese boats fired back with their own spray guns sparking a ferocious water fight.

In the end, the might of Japan proved too strong for their Taiwanese counterparts, who eventually turned on their tails and headed home.

It was the latest confrontation over the uninhabited islands Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China.

China, Japan and Taiwan all claim the islands, but they are administered by Tokyo, since the Japanese government bought them from private owners two weeks ago.

Good thing they didn't have super-soakers, or they may have attempted a boarding action.

Review of the PTR91GI

Warrior Talk News has a review of the PTR91GI (basically, PTR's version of the HK91, which is a semi-auto only version of the HK G-3). I do have a couple of comments.

First, without the paddle-mag release, magazine changes are much slower with HK 91/93 style rifles than many other battle-rifles--the magazine release button is on the right side of the rifle, requiring you to use your shooting hand to operate the release. The paddle-mag release, on the other hand, hangs down just behind the magazine, allowing you to quickly make a magazine change in one fluid motion with your off hand. If you are just wanting a rifle that is fun to shoot at the range, it's not necessary. But otherwise, the paddle-mag release needs to be added to make it an effective combat or self-defense tool.

Second, notwithstanding what the author feels, I think the rear sights on an HK are not all that great. For one thing, the sights are too close to the eye to use the 100m sight. For those unfamiliar with the rifle, the rear sight is a canted drum that can be rotated to provide sights for 100, 200, 300, and 400 meters, respectively; the 100 meter sight is an open sight--basically an open notch sight similar to what you would find on a typical level action or .22 rifle--while the others are peep sights. While the distance from the eye to the rear sight is fine for the peep sights, the 100-meter open rear sight is so close that it blurs out and is essentially useless except for the roughest alignment. There is a reason that most rifles using those types of notch- or V-sights place the rear sight ahead of the receiver.... Frankly, HK would have been better off using a peep or ghost ring sight similar to what was on the FAL or the U.S. rifles. Unfortunately, there is not much you can do to improve the rear sight. I would suggest leaving it on the 200m peep for most of your shooting and, if you can, mount a red-dot or telescopic sight.

The Meaning of the Black Muslim Flag

I was reading a story on Fox News today about Egyptian President Morsi and read something disturbing in its ignorance or its intent to deceive readers. The story, which is from the Associated Press, states:

In the interview, Morsi dismissed criticism that he responded too slowly when protesters managed to scale the walls of the heavily fortified U.S. Embassy in Cairo on Sept. 11. The demonstrators replaced the American flag with a banner carrying the Islamic declaration of faith.  

CBS reported at the time the following:

Dozens of protesters scaled the embassy walls, went into the courtyard and took down the flag from a pole. They brought it back to the crowd outside, which tried to burn it, but failing that, tore it apart. The protesters on the wall then raised on the flagpole a black flag with the Muslim declaration of faith on it, "There is no god but God [sic] and Muhammad is his prophet."

Here's a photo:

The black flag has special significance in Islam. As Joel Richardson explains in his book, Antichrist: Islam's Awaited Messiah:

In Islam there are two flags. One is white and one is black. Written across both flags in Arabic are the words, "There is no God but Allah and Muhammad is his Messenger." The white flag is called Al-Liwaa and serves as the sign for the leader of the Muslim army and is the flag of the Islamic State. The black flag is called Ar-Raya and is used by the Muslim army. It is also called the flag of jihad, and is carried into battle. One flag is governmental and the other is a military flag. 

 * * * 

Islamic tradition pictures the Mahdi [the Islamic messiah] as joining with teh army of Muslim warriors carrying black flags. The Madhi will then lead this army to Israel and re-conquer it for Islam. The Jews will be slaughtered until very few remain and Jerusalem will become the location of the Mahdi's rule over the Earth.

(pp. 45-46).

"A Remarkable Vision from John Taylor"

For my LDS readers, I wanted to share a vision by John Taylor, shortly after Brigham Young's death, which was recorded by Wilford Woodruff in his journal. This is from the Yorgasons' book, Spiritual Survival in the Last Days, starting at p. 44 (they kept the original spelling and punctuation, and so have I; the brackets were presumably added by the Yorgasons):

I [ ] went to bed at my usual hour half past nine o'clock. I had been reading the Revelations in the French language. My mind was Calm, more so than usual if possible to so. I Composed myself for sleep but Could not sleep. I felt a strange stupor Come over me and apparently became partially unconscious. Still I was not asleep, nor awake With strange far away dreamy feelings.

The first I recognized was that I was in the Tabernacle at Ogden sitting on the back seat in the Corner for fear they would Call upon me to Preach, which after singing the second time, they did, by Calling me to the Stand.

I arose to speak and said I did not Know that I had any thing special to say Except to bear my Testimony to the Truth of the Latter Day work when all at once it seemed as though I was lifted out of myself, and I said "Yes, I have sumthing to say, it is this--some of my brethren present have been asking me what is Coming to pass, what is the wind blowing up. I will answer you right here what is Coming to pass shortly.

I was immediately in Salt Lake City wandering about the streets in all parts of the City on ON the door of every house I found a badge of mourning, and I Could not find a house but what was in mourning. I passed by my own house and saw the same sign there, an d asked, "Is that me that is dead?" Sumthing gave me answer, "No, you [shall] live through it all."

It seemed strange to me that I saw no person [on] the street in my wandering about through the City. They seemed to be in their houses with their Sick and Dead. I saw no funeral procession, or any thing of that kind, but the City looked very Still and quiet as though the people were praying and had Controll of the disease what ever it was.

I then looked in all directions over the Territory, East west North and South, and I found the same mourning in every place throughout the Land. The next I knew I was Just this side of Omaha. It seemed as though I was above, the Earth, looking down to it as I passed along on my way East and I saw the roads full of people, principally women, with just what they Could Carry in bundles on their backs traveling to the mountains on foot. And I wondered how they Could get there, with nothing but a small pack upon their backs. It was remarkable to me that there were so few men among them. It did not seem as though the Cars were running. The rails looked rusty, and the road abandoned, And I have no conception how I traveled myself.

As I looked down upon the people I Continued Eastward through Omaha and Council Bluffs which were full of disease, and women every whare. The States of Missouri and Illinois were in turmoil and Strife, Men killing each other, and women joining in the fight, family against family Cutting each other to pieces in the most horrid manner.

The next I saw was Washington, and I found the City a desolation. The White House Empty, the Halls of Congress the same Everything in ruins. The people seemed to have fled from the City and left it to take Care of itself.

I was next in the City of Baltimore and in the square where the Monument of 1812 Stands, in front of St Charles and other Hotels I saw the Dead piled up so high as to fill the square. I saw Mothers Cut the throats of their own Children for the sake of their blood, which they drank from their veins, to quench their thirst and then lie down and die. The waters of the Chesapeake and of the City were so stagnant and such a stench arose from them on account of the putrefaction of Dead bodies that the very smell Caused Death and that was singular again I saw no men except they were dead, lying in the streets, and vary few women, and they were Crazy mad, and in a dying Condition. Every whare I went I beheld the same all over the City, And it was horrible, beyond description to look at.

I thought this must be the End. But No I was seemingly in Philadelphia, and there every thing was Still. No living soul was to be seen to greet me, and it seemed as though the whole City was without an inhabitant. In arch and Chestnut Street and in fact Every whare I went the putrefaction of the Dead bodies Caused such a stench that it was Impossible for any Creature to Exhist alive, nor did I see any living thing in the city.

I next found myself in Broad way New York and here it seemed the people had done their best to overcome the disease. But in wandering down Broadway I saw the bodies of Beautiful women lying stone dead, and others in a dying Condition on the side walk. I saw men Crawl out of the Cellars and rob the dead bodies of the valuables they had on and before they Could return to their coverts in the cellars they themselves would roll over a time or two and die in agony. On some of the back streets I saw Mothers kill their own Children and Eat raw flesh and then in a few minutes die themselves. Wharever I went I saw the same scenes of Horror and Desolation rapine and Death. No Horses or Carriages, No busses or Street Cars, but Death and Destruction every whare.

I then went to the Grand Central Park and looking back I saw a fire Start and just at that moment a might East wind sprang up and Carried the flames west over the City, and it burned untill there was not a single building left Standing whole Even down to the wharfs. And the shipping all seemed to be burned and swallowed up in the Common destruction and left Nothing but a Desolation whare the great City was a short time before. The Stench from the bodies that were burning was so great that it Carried a great distance across the Hudson River and bay, and thus spread disease and death whareever the flames penetrated. I Cannot paint in words the Horror that seemed to Encompass me around. It was beyond description or thought of man to Conceive.

I supposed this was the End but I was here given to understand, that the same horror was being enacted all of the Country, North South East and West, that few were left alive. Still there were some.

Immediately after I seemed to be standing on the west bank of the Missouri River opposite the City of Independence but I saw no City. I saw the whole States of Missouri & Illinois and part of Iowa were a Complete wilderness with no living human being in them. I then saw a short distance from the river Twelve men dressed in the robes of the Temple Standing in a square or nearly so. I understood it represented the Twelve gates of the New Jerusalem, and they were with hands uplifted Consecrating the ground and laying the Corner Stones. I saw myriads of Angels hovering over them and around about them and also an immens pillar of a Cloud over them and I heard the singing of the most beautif[ul] music the words "Now is established the Kingdom of our God and His Christ, and He shall reign forever and Ever, and the Kingdom shall never be Thrown down for the Saints have overcome." And I saw people Coming from the River and different places a long way off to help build the Temple, and it seemed that the Hosts of the angels also helped to get the material to build the Temple. And I saw some Come who wore their Temple ... rob[e]s to help build the Temple and the City and all the time I saw the great pillar of Cloud hovering over the place.

Instantly I found I was in the Tabernacle at Ogden yet I Could see the building going on and got quite animated in Calling to the people in the Tabernacle to listen to the beautiful music that the Angels were Making. I Called to them to look at the Angels as the House seemed to be full of them and they were saying the same words that I heard Before "Now is the Kingdom of our God Esstablished forever & Ever." And then a voice said "Now shall Come to pass that which was spoken by Isaiah the Prophet "that seven women shall take hold of one man, saying &c (Isaiah 4:1). ["And in that day seven women shall take hold of one man, saying, We will eat our own bread, and wear our own apparel: only let us be called by thy name, to take away our reproach."]

At this time I seemed to Stagger back from the pulpit & F D Richards and some one els Caught me and prevented me from falling when I requested Brother Richards to apologize to the audience for me because I stoped so adruptly and tell them I had not feinted but was exhausted. I rolled over in my bed and heard the City Hall Clock Strike Twelve.

The citation given by the Yorgasons is: Wilford Woodruff's Journal, 1833-1898, ed. Scott G. Kenney, 9 vols [Midvale UT: Signature Books], 7:419-23. Also in Unpublished Revelations of the Prophets and Presidents of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, vol. 1, comp. Fred C. Collier [Salt Lake City: Collier's Publishing Co., 1979], pp. 119-23.

The Problems Israel Would Face If Attacking Iran

Here are some of the problems facing the Israelis if they attempt to attack Iranian nuclear facilities by air:

According to Joffe, the US air force ordered MOPs [massive bunker busting bombs] when the Fordo facility was uncovered, the first were delivered last fall. Israel does not have MOPs or American B2 bombers, which would be used to transport the bombs if the Americans attack. Yet Fordo is only one of the problems Israel is facing.

Another difficulty in a military strike against Iran is the distance. Out of the eight central air force targets in the Islamic Republic, only the Arak facility is reachable without refueling.

"An F-16I 'Storm' flies very high in very thin air, with extra fuel tanks it can cover 1500 km. Yet if it flies low to evade radar in Jordan, Iraq and Iran, its combat radius shrinks by half. The F-15I 'Thunder', the IAF’s mightiest jet probably has similar specs: 1000 to 1500 kilometers.

Joffe goes on to explain in detail why it just is not enough: "The pilots would have to turn back about a hundred kilometers short of the enrichment sites at Fordo and Natanz. If they were to fly on anyway, they would have to refill their tanks over territory that’s not exactly friendly: Jordan and Iraq using the direct route; or, on the northern variant, along the Syrian-Turkish border.

"They could fly undetected only over the sea, around the Arabian Peninsula. That would mean 5000 kilometers: an absurd venture…Geography, then, remains Israel’s foremost enemy, one that can be overcome only by midair refueling."

Yet refueling might be Israel's main problem, says Joffe: "Israel has only five tanker jets modified Boeing 707s. Time for some mental math: The IAF has 100 Storms and 25 Thunders. If they’re all deployed at once, they would have to be refueled twice, on each leg of the mission. 125 times two equals 250 – with a handful of tankers?

"Then with half the fleet, perhaps? That wouldn’t change much either, because bombers have to arm themselves against fighters and ground-to-air missiles. The Iranians’ 50-odd fighters (F-14s, Mirages and MiG-29s) may be old to obsolete, but still have to be reckoned with."

In line with American assessments claiming that Israel cannot destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities, and would only be able to delay Tehran's efforts to achieve nuclear capability, Joffe believes that the IDF would choose to hit a few of targets rather than all eight of them.

He concludes that the air force might try to take out key components in the nuclear supplies chain by destroying the enrichment facility at Natanz, which is more vulnerable than Fordo, as well as the uranium converter facility at Isfahan.

Joffe explains that without the possibility of converting uranium to gas, Iran would be forced to halt enrichment activities.

The Zombie Song

Sometimes, you gotta find something that makes you laugh. So, for the sake of laughter, here is a humorous zombie apocalypse song:

Middle East War is the Best Option

David Goldman (aka Spengler), has another insightful post at the Asia Times about the bigger picture in the Middle-East. He writes:

If a contrarian thought might be permitted, consider the possibility that all-out regional war is the optimal outcome for American interests. An Israeli strike on Iran that achieved even limited success - a two-year delay in Iran's nuclear weapons development - would arrest America's precipitous decline as a superpower.

Absent an Israeli strike, America faces:

A nuclear-armed Iran; Iraq's continued drift towards alliance with Iran; An overtly hostile regime in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood government will lean on jihadist elements to divert attention from the country's economic collapse; An Egyptian war with Libya for oil and with Sudan for water; A radical Sunni regime controlling most of Syria, facing off an Iran-allied Alawistan ensconced in the coastal mountains; A de facto or de jure Muslim Brotherhood takeover of the Kingdom of Jordan; A campaign of subversion against the Saudi monarchy by Iran through Shi'ites in Eastern Province and by the Muslim Brotherhood internally; A weakened and perhaps imploding Turkey struggling with its Kurdish population and the emergence of Syrian Kurds as a wild card; A Taliban-dominated Afghanistan; and Radicalized Islamic regimes in Libya and Tunisia. Saudi Arabia is the biggest loser in the emerging Middle East configuration, and Russia is the biggest winner. Europe and Japan have concluded that America has abandoned its long-standing commitment to the security of energy supplies in the Persian Gulf by throwing the Saudi monarchy under the bus, and have quietly shifted their energy planning towards Russia. Little of this line of thinking will appear in the news media, but the reorientation towards Moscow is underway nonetheless. From Israel's vantage point, the way things are now headed is the worst-case scenario. The economic sanctions are a nuisance for Iran, but not a serious hindrance to its nuclear ambitions. When US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey intoned on August 30 that he "did not want to be complicit" in an Israeli strike on Iran, he was stating publicly what the Pentagon has signaled to Tehran for the past six months. The US wants no part of an Israeli strike. This remonstrance from the Pentagon, along with the State Department's refusal to identify a "red line" past which Iran would provoke American military action, amounts to a green light for Iran to build an atomic bomb, Israeli analysts believe. What if Israel were to strike Iran? From a technical standpoint, there is no question that Israel could severely damage the Iranian nuclear program. ....Israel has had 10 years to plan the operation, and it is a fair assumption that the Israeli Air Force can accomplish the mission. The deeper question is: what constitutes success? "When Israel bombed [Iraq's] Osiris [nuclear reactor in 1981]," said an Israeli who took part in the planning, "we expected a three-year setback of Iraq's nuclear program. It was delayed by 10 years. But that wasn't the most important thing. What was most important to us is the ripple effect through the region." The ripple effects are what America's foreign policy establishment fears the most. The vision shared by the George W Bush and Barack Obama administrations, albeit with some variation, of a Middle East dotted with democratic regimes friendly to the United States would pop like a soap-bubble. What ripples would ensue from a successful Israeli strike on Iran? Iran probably would attempt to block the Straits of Hormuz, the gateway for a fifth of the world's oil supply, and America would respond by destroying Iranian conventional military capabilities and infrastructure from the air. This would add to Tehran's humiliation, and strengthen the domestic opposition. Iran's influence in Iraq and Syria would diminish, although Iran's supporters in both countries probably would spill a great deal of blood in the short run. Hizbollah almost certainly would unleash its missile arsenal at Israel, inflicting a few hundred casualties by Israeli estimates. Israel would invade southern Lebanon and - unlike the 2006 war - fight without fear of Syrian intervention. In 2006, the Olmert government restricted the movements of the IDF out of fear that the Syrian Army would intervene. Syria's army is in no position to intervene today. There is a possibility, to be sure, that Syria would launch chemical and biological warheads against Israel, but if the Assad government employed weapons of mass destruction, Israel would respond with a nuclear bombardment. In this case deterrence is likely to be effective. Iran's influence in Lebanon would be drastically diminished. Stripped of support from its Iranian sponsor, the Alawite regime would fall, and Syria would become a Saudi-Turkish condominium. Ethnic butchery would go on for some time. Egypt would be cut off from financial support from the Gulf States as punishment for its opening to Iran. The domestic consequences for Egypt would be ugly. The country is almost out of money; some of its oil suppliers stopped deliveries last August, and Egypt's refineries lack funds to buy oil from the government.

And on that note, I will direct your attention to this article which notes that the Israeli military has held the largest snap drills in years:

The Israeli military on Wednesday conducted its largest snap drill in years as tensions with Iran over its nuclear program rise and civil war in neighboring Syria rages.

Military chief Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz ordered the exercise to test the competence and preparedness of several units in the armed forces, a military statement said. It called the drill in northern and central Israel "part of a routine inspection" that "does not indicate any changes" in the country's alert levels.

Tens of thousands of soldiers were mobilized for the exercise, including artillery and air force personnel, making the drill unique because of the number of soldiers and senior officers involved, several officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity, according to military regulations.

As part of the exercise, troops were dispatched by air from central part of the country to the Israeli-controlled part of the Golan Heights, captured from neighboring Syria in the 1967 Mideast war, the officials said. The drill ended with a live fire exercise in the Golan.

DHS Continues Preps for Civil War?

Infowars reports that the Department of Homeland Security has purchased another 200 million rounds of ammunition, in addition to the 1.2 billion it has purchased over the last 6 months. (By purchase, I mean placed orders; deliveries will take more time). What do they think they need that much ammo for? They are a federal law enforcement agency, not the Army.

According to the report, 176,000 rounds are for snipers (i.e., 168 grain .308 HPBT--the standard military load, by comparison, uses a 147 grain FMJ bullet). Granted, snipers shoot a lot in practice, but still....

China Hints at Economic Warfare Against Japan

The Telegraph reports on the latest escalation between China and Japan:

Jin Baisong from the Chinese Academy of International Trade – a branch of the commerce ministry – said China should use its power as Japan’s biggest creditor with $230bn (£141bn) of bonds to “impose sanctions on Japan in the most effective manner” and bring Tokyo’s festering fiscal crisis to a head.

Writing in the Communist Party newspaper China Daily, Mr Jin called on China to invoke the “security exception” rule under the World Trade Organisation to punish Japan, rejecting arguments that a trade war between the two Pacific giants would be mutually destructive.

Separately, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that China is drawing up plans to cut off Japan’s supplies of rare earth metals needed for hi-tech industry.

The warnings came as anti-Japanese protests spread to 85 cities across China, forcing Japanese companies to shutter factories and suspend operations.

Fitch Ratings threatened to downgrade a clutch of Japanese exporters if the clash drags on. It warned that Nissan is heavily at risk with 26pc of its global car sales in China, followed by Honda with 20pc. Sharp and Panasonic both have major exposure. Japan’s exports to China were $74bn in the first half of this year. Bilateral trade reached $345bn last year.

Mr Jin said China can afford to sacrifice its “low-value-added” exports to Japan at a small cost. By contrast, Japan relies on Chinese demand to keep its economy afloat and stave off “irreversible” decline.

“It’s clear that China can deal a heavy blow to the Japanese economy without hurting itself too much,” he said. It is unclear whether he was speaking with the full backing of the Politburo or whether sales of Japanese debt would do much damage. The Bank of Japan could counter the move with bond purchases. Any weakening of the yen would be welcome.

He adds:

China’s post-Maoist regime derives its legitimacy from nationalism, especially now that the boom is fading and China is losing some of its competitive edge.

The anti-Japanese fervour was systematically stoked by the “Patriotic Education Campaign” of Jiang Zemin in the 1990s to divert attention from party corruption and the growing gap between rich and poor.

But it is a double-edged sword for China’s leaders. “Given its potency, it is difficult to control. Nationalism can turn against the government, if it is perceived as doing too little,” he said.

Markets are already starting to price in an arms race in Asia. Shares of China’s North Navigation Control Technology, which makes missile systems, have jumped 30pc in recent days.

China is becoming self-sufficient in defence. It was the world’s biggest net importer of weapons six years ago. It fell to fourth place last year.

Japan is at the other extreme. An official report this year – “A Strategy for Survival” – said Japan’s spending on its “Self-Defence Force” had shrunk by 4pc in 10 years. It called for “urgent” action to rebuild the country’s military.

If there is any silver lining in an Asian arms race, it may at least soak up the region’s excess savings and pull the world out of semi-slump. But be careful what you wish for.

Two cultures on a demographic race to the bottom. Japan's economy has been moribund for two decades; China, economically, is positioned where Japan was in the late 80's, and may follow it. At that time, Japan was riding an economic wave, and a huge real estate bubble. And then it all went bust. However, I don't see China slipping into economic somnolence as peacefully as Japan.  

However, let's think where this may go if China decided to push hostilities with Japan. The biggest factor would be the American military. Obviously, the U.S. is not going to respond with nuclear weapons--no president would risk a nuclear attack against the U.S. mainland in order to protect another country. China, similarly, does not want to provoke the U.S. into a nuclear conflict. China would need to ensure that the U.S. would not intervene or, if it did so, that victory would be swift. I suspect that China would threaten U.S. troops in the Middle-East and Afghanistan, probably through a third party such as Pakistan and/or Iran, to keep them pinned down and the U.S. diverted, while it deals with "liberating" the contested Islands. China doesn't have to defeat Japan through an invasion--it simply has to humiliate Japan.