Naval Forces Gathering in Persian Gulf

From the Telegraph:

Cruisers, aircraft carriers and minesweepers from 25 nations are converging on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz in an unprecedented show of force as Israel and Iran move towards the brink of war.

Western leaders are convinced that Iran will retaliate to any attack by attempting to mine or blockade the shipping lane through which passes around 18 million barrels of oil every day, approximately 35 per cent of the world’s oil traded by sea.

A blockade would have a catastrophic effect on the fragile economies of Britain, Europe the United States and Japan, all of which rely heavily on oil and gas supplies from the Gulf.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most congested international waterways. It is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point and is bordered by the Iranian coast to the north and the Oman to the south.

In preparation for any pre-emptive or retaliatory action by Iran, warships from more than 25 countries, including the United States, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will today begin an annual 12-day exercise.

* * *

In the event of war, the main threat to the multi-national force will come from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps navy, which is expected to adopt an “access-denial” strategy in the wake of an attack, by directly targeting US warships, attacking merchant shipping and mining vital maritime chokepoints in the Persian Gulf.

Defence sources say that although Iran’s capability may not be technologically sophisticated, it could deliver a series of lethal blows against British and US ships using mini-subs, fast attack boats, mines and shore-based anti-ship missile batteries.

Next month, Iran will stage massive military manoeuvres of its own, to show that it is prepared to defend its nuclear installations against the threat of aerial bombardment.

The exercise is being showcased as the biggest air defence war game in the Islamic Republic’s history, and will be its most visible response yet to the prospect of an Israeli military strike.

Using surface-to-air missiles, unmanned drones and state-of-the-art radar, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and air force will combine to test the defences of 3,600 sensitive locations throughout the country, including oil refineries and uranium enrichment facilities.

Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya air defence base, told a conference this month that the manoeuvres would “identify vulnerabilities, try out new tactics and practise old ones”.

* * *

One defence source told The Sunday Telegraph last night: “If it came to war, there would be carnage. The Iranian casualties would be huge but they would be able to inflict severe blows against the US and British.

“The Iranian Republican Guard are well versed in asymmetrical warfare and would use swarm attacks to sink or seriously damage ships. This is a conflict nobody wants, but the rhetoric from Israel is unrelenting.”

"[T]he rhetoric from Israel"? They face an existential threat--I don't think it is rhetoric.

The Iranian exercises may provide an interesting window of opportunity--either during the confusion of the exercises (can Iran manage all of its aircraft?) or immediately afterward when its military crews are tired, and stores have been depleted.

Chinese General: Prepare for War

More saber rattling:

China’s most powerful military leader, in an unusual public statement, last week ordered military forces to prepare for combat, as Chinese warships deployed to waters near disputed islands and anti-Japan protests throughout the country turned violent.

Protests against the Japanese government’s purchase of three privately held islands in the Senkakus chain led to mass street protests, the burning of Japanese flags, and attacks on Japanese businesses and cars in several cities. Some carried signs that read “Kill all Japanese,” and “Fight to the Death” over disputed islands. One sign urged China to threaten a nuclear strike against Japan.

Gen. Xu Caihou, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, considered the most senior military political commissar, said Friday that military forces should be “prepared for any possible military combat,” state run Xinhua news agency reported.

Of course, Japan is not the Philippines, and probably won't be as easy to push around.

Conflict Between Japan and China?

Benjamin Franklin is believed to have said: "We must, indeed, all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately." This is very true for those nations that are asserting claims to portions of the South China Sea against the claims of China. From CNS News:

Exchanging warnings but avoiding confrontations thus far, Chinese and Japanese ships have come within less than half a nautical mile of each other in an ongoing dispute over the sovereignty of contested islands.

Amid deepening tensions in a long-running saga over the uninhabited islands, known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned Sunday about the possibility of war between the two Asian countries.

“What we don't want is to have any kind of provocative behavior on the part of China or anybody else result in conflict,” he told reporters accompanying him on a trip that includes stops in Japan, China and New Zealand.

“My purpose will be to urge that they engage in the effort by the Asian nations to try to work out a format for resolving these issues,” he added, referring to a code of conduct developed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in a bid to manage unconnected territorial disputes between China and ASEAN members in the South China Sea.

Asked again about the concerns, Panetta said he was worried that “when these countries engage in provocations of one kind or another over these various islands, that it raises the possibility that a misjudgment on one side or the other could result in violence and could result in conflict, and that conflict would then, you know, have the potential of expanding.”

Why Armaggedon?

Why is Armageddon--speaking broadly of the widespread destruction and death in the last days--necessary? Why would a loving and merciful God allow such pain, suffering and death?

God's purpose is to produce a people worthy and capable of having "the tabernacle of God ... with men, ... [so that] he will dwell with them, and they shall be his people, and God himself shall be with them, and be their God." Rev. 21:3. And, a people that are worthy of the power and responsibility of being "heirs of God, and joint-heirs with Christ." Romans 8:17. Obviously, this requires a people that are repentant and meek, and pure in heart. See, e.g., Matt. 5:8; Heb. 10:22; 3 Nephi 12:8; 1 Timothy 1:5.

However, we live in a period of great evil. "But as the days of Noe [i.e. Noah] were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be." Matt. 24:37. See also, generally, 2 Peter 3; Jude 1:14-25. What was it like in the days of Noah? In Genesis, it states that "the wickedness of man was great in the earth, and that every imagination of the thoughts of his heart was only evil continually." Gen. 6:5. And "[t]he earth also was corrupt before God, and the earth was filled with violence." Gen. 6:11. Just as in the days of Noah, wickedness will be so rampant that the only course available will be to destroy the wicked in order to save the good. Thus, the second coming of Christ is His opportunity to separate the "wheat" (i.e., the good) from the "tares" (i.e., the evil), and destroy the tares. See Matt. 13: 24-30. See also D&C 86; D&C 101:65 (providing further explanation of the parable of the wheat and tares).

This is not only wickedness in the sense that most people think of it--as specific sinful conduct--but also the philosophies and world views that underlie wickedness. President Ezra Taft Benson stated this about the coming conflict of the last days:

Momentum is gathering for another conflict--a repetition of the crisis of two hundred years ago. This collision of ideas is worldwide. Another monumental moment is soon to be born. The issue is the same that precipitated the great premortal conflict--will men be free to determine their own course of action or must they be coerced?

(quoted from Yorgason, Blain and Brenton Yorgason, Spiritual Survival in the Last Days (1990), p. 35). He is, of course, speaking of the great war in heaven where Satan was able to draw away 1/3 of the heavenly hosts to follow him. Satan's goal was to exalt himself above God and take the Father's glory as his own. To achieve his goal, he came up with a seemingly laudable plan to save every soul, by forcing everyone to be good; in contravention to Christ's plan that people be given free will to choose good or evil. Undoubtedly he convinced many of the Heavenly Hosts to try and support him by arguing that saving all souls, such that not one was lost, was worth the sacrifice of free agency.

In K. Eric Drexler's classic Engines of Creation, he discusses the concept of "memes," which he defines as "[a]n idea that, like a gene, can replicate and evolve. Examples of memes (and meme systems) include political theories, proselytizing religions, and the idea of memes itself." Engines of Creation (1986), p. 288. See also Id. at 35 ("examples of memes are tunes, ideas, catch-phrases, clothes fashions, ways of making pots or of building arches"). That is, "ideas mutate, replicate, and compete. Ideas evolve." Id. at 35. He further explains:

Memes replicate because people both learn and teach. They vary because people create the new and misunderstand the old. They are selected (in part) because people don't believe or repeat everything they hear. As test tube RNA molecules compete for scarce copying machines and subunits, so memes must compete for a scarce resource--human attention and effort. Since memes shape behavior, their success of failure is a deadly serious matter.

Id. Unfortunately, "[e]xperience shows that ideas evolved to be successful replicators need have little to do with the truth." Id. at 37. The wicked are repositories and carriers of these harmful memes.

Evil memes ultimately kill their hosts because it causes them to "call evil good, and good evil" and "put darkness for light, and light for darkness" and "bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter." Isaiah 5:20. That is, they reject good memes in favor of evil memes. Evil memes lead to evil practices which lead to evil consequences. What makes this age different, in my view, is that not only are evil memes spread more rapidly and thoroughly by means of mass media, but they have become institutionalized in our education systems, bureaucracies, and laws. Thus,the second coming will not only see the destruction of the wicked, but the end of all nations. See Jer. 30:11; D&C 87:6.

The only way to destroy the evil memes is to expunge them. For the righteous, the trials of the second coming will allow the Lord to chasten his people, and permit them to repent and put aside the evil memes they may hold. For the wicked who refuse to repent, these same events will bring utter ruin and destruction. "Although the righteous have no guarantee of escape [from the trials and tribulations of the last days], the wicked have no hope." (Gerald N. Lund, The Coming of the Lord (1971), p. 80).

Netanyahu Suggests Israel May Go It Alone Against Iran

We inch ever closer to a general Middle-Eastern conflict--perhaps involving nuclear weapons--because of the gross policy mistakes of the current administration in supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremists, while denigrating our allies.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insinuated in an interview published Friday that Israel cannot entirely rely on the U.S. to act against Iran's suspect nuclear program, a sign that the Israeli leader is not backing down from the sharp rhetoric that strained relations this week with the Obama administration.

Netanyahu has been arguing in recent weeks that Iran is getting close to acquiring nuclear weapons capability, a claim Iran denies. He has been pushing the U.S. to commit to the circumstances under which the U.S. would lead a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders have repeatedly hinted that if the United States does not attack, Israel will.

"I hear those who say we should wait until the last minute. But what if the U.S. doesn't act? It's a question that must be asked," Netanyahu told Israel Hayom, in an interview marking the Jewish New Year.

. . . The Obama administration also suspects Tehran is seeks to become a nuclear power and says it is committed to preventing a nuclear Iran, but insists more efforts must be made before resorting to military action. Washington is refusing to be specific about what exactly would necessitate a strike on Iran and has rejected an Israeli demand for "red lines" that cannot be crossed.

Earlier this week Netanyahu issued a rebuke of the U.S. cautious stance, perceived as an indirect swipe at the Obama administration. He said that "those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran don't have a moral right to place a red light before Israel."

Two-Faced Muslim Brotherhood

Apparently the Muslim Brotherhood isn't much brainier than Obama and Biden when it comes to public communication. From Newser:

The US embassy in Cairo caught the ruling Muslim Brotherhood being two-faced as the protests were under way earlier this week, reports the Hill. The Egypt group's Arabic feed praised the protests, while its American feed expressed support for American staffers:  

--Brotherhood's tweet in Arabic: "Egyptians rise to defend the prophet."

--Brotherhood's tweet in English: "We r relieved none of @USEmbassyCairo staff were harmed & hope US-Eg relations will sustain turbulence of Tuesday's events"

--US response to the latter: "Thanks. By the way, have you checked out your own Arabic feeds? I hope you know we read those too."

The US embassy feed is run by Larry Schwartz, the senior policy officer responsible for the controversial American statement released just after the protests started.

Continued aid to Egypt is just throwing good money after bad.

Children to Be Their Rulers

One of the important concepts of understanding Biblical prophecy is to understand that many of the prophecies are dualistic: they may have been fulfilled, or partly fulfilled, in ancient times, but also are applicable to the latter-days.

With that in mind, as I look back at how our national leaders have failed to do anything to mitigate the financial and debt crises they helped manufacture, and the bumbling about on foreign policy, I am reminded of this from Isaiah 3:

For, behold, the Lord, the Lord of hosts, doth take away from Jerusalem and from Judah ... [t]he mighty man, and the man of war, the judge, and the prophet, and the prudent, and the ancient, ... [a]nd I will give children to be their princes, and babes shall rule over them.

Isaiah 3:1-2, 4. The Baker Illustrated Bible Commentary indicates that these versus mean that the Lord "will remove the divinely ordained officers and will instead put over the people corrupt leaders who are immature and lacking in experience, like 'youths' and 'children.'" Such has been our doom, too.

San Cristobal Volcano Erupts

A volcano has blasted a huge ash plume three miles into the atmosphere causing the mass evacuation of thousands of nearby residents.

A 30-mile ash cloud quickly descended around San Cristobal, the highest volcano in Nicaragua, central America, after the eruption into the sky on Saturday.

Residents reported hearing three powerful explosions in the volcano as the cloud began billowing skyward and ash drifted over nearby villages.

... The plume formed a cloud extending out across 30-miles from the 5,725-foot San Cristobal volcano, which is situated about 95 miles north of the capital Managua in the country's volcano-dotted northwest, said the Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies (Ineter).

Javier Mejia, executive director of Ineter, which monitors seismic and volcanic activity, said he recommended that civil aviation authorities close down the air space near San Cristobal because of the ash plume and cloud, the largest recorded in recent years.

(Full story, with photos and video, here).

Tornado Strikes New York City...

... in Queens.

A tornado touched down in the New York City borough of Queens this morning, pulling down power lines, throwing around cars and damaging property.

The National Weather Service said in a preliminary report that a tornado may have hit Breezy Point, a neighborhood on the Rockaway Peninsula of Queens.

Tornadoes are extremely rare in the largest and most densely populated U.S. city.

(Full story here).

Matthew Braken Discusses Civil War in the U.S.

A couple of articles from Matthew Braken theorizing about the causes and phases of a second civil war in the United States. 

The first article explores what Braken refers to as the "meta-terrain" of such a conflict--basically the different, polarized groups that will be pushing the conflict. He conceptualizes these groups through what he refers to as the CW2 Cube:

Before we move on to the cube, let’s begin with the CW2 Square. The cube is best tackled in another step. Draw the square and label one axis Poorer to Richer. Label the other axis Darker to Lighter. Darker, for brevity, includes African-Americans, Hispanics and so on. Lighter refers to those of European ancestry. The two opposed meta-groups are the poorer and darker versus the richer and lighter, or whiter if you wish to be blunt. The richer/whiter have the power of their wealth, but counterbalancing that advantage is the fact that the poorer/darker have succeeded in wresting control of much of government power. This is so, even if most of their elected leaders are anything but poor or dark.

... Filling one corner of the CW2 Square will be the poorer and darker, who primarily are liberal and progressive Democrats who believe in a malleable “living Constitution.” And in the other corner will be the richer and whiter, who mainly are conservative or libertarian Republicans who believe in the original intent of the written Constitution. Again, keep your eyes on the two meta-cores, not the exceptions.

Now, let’s add the third dimension and shoot another axis out from the square to form the CW2 Cube. Label the third axis Urban versus Rural, or City versus Country if you prefer. This axis gives a geographical dimension to the meta-terrain, but there will be no convenient dividing line between the opposed sides as there was during the first civil war. It has frequently been observed that today’s red-blue political map is better understood at the county than at the state level. Even blue states like Illinois, California and New York are rural-red outside of their blue urban cores. Obviously, these urban cores are heavily populated but geographically small, with all that means to the electoral process today and to a possible civil war later.

So the opposing corners of the CW2 Cube can be seen as the poorer, darker cities versus the richer, whiter rural areas. Again, don’t quibble about outliers. Yes, there are a few rich, conservative African-Americans living in Wyoming, many poor white liberal Democrats in rural West Virginia, some rich conservatives in San Francisco and every other exceptional case imaginable.

Most of us live in the mushy, mongrel middle, far from the tips of the two opposite corners. But the centers of gravity of Civil War Two shall be as I have described: the relatively richer, whiter and more rural against the poorer, darker and urban. One can also propose many more axes of conflict than can fit on a cube, such as the religious versus the non-believers, socialists versus capitalists, statists versus individualists and so on. However, after you reflect upon the CW2 Cube, I think you will find that most of these extra axes can be overlaid parallel to one of the three already posited.

... One repeated lesson of modern civil war is that there is inherently dangerous, even fatal terrain. Some of this predictably-dangerous terrain is often highly desirable and even advantageous before the outbreak of civil war.

To begin: you do not want to live as a trapped and cut-off minority in what might become “enemy territory.” If you live amidst your civil war enemies, as defined and located within the CW2 Cube, you will be in mortal danger even if your immediate neighbors know, love and respect you. Those persons who have a stake in fanning the flames of CW2 (and their number shall be legion), will intentionally target those remaining “holdouts” who may be respected minority neighbors. (In this essay, minority means “the minority within a given group or area.” Blacks are the majority in some areas, and whites are the minorities in others, and so on.)

Frequently in modern civil wars, roaming armed groups (in or out of uniform) will even force people to kill their own beloved and respected minority neighbors as an ultimate loyalty test. If they refuse, they may themselves be killed as “traitors.” Besides pre-conflict racists and radicals, there will be an ever-increasing pool of persons attempting to expel minorities from their homes. Those embittered unfortunates who have already been ethnically cleansed will be seeking new living quarters, and the homes and property of “enemy” minorities still living in majority territory will be the first on the chopping block. (Not the auction block, because payment of any kind is rarely offered.) This process of minority eviction becomes self-perpetuating.

Often, those members of minorities who escape as refugees are the lucky ones who do not lose their lives during the back-and-forth of escalating violence. The fact that they may have been loved, admired and respected for many years by their majority-population neighbors will not protect them. This is a clear lesson of modern civil war. Another is that while the rich or the well-to-do can sometimes hide their wealth and pass as proles, the same cannot be said about concealing one’s racial or ethnic identity. Religious affiliation and political leanings can also be hidden, but outward appearance cannot. Civil War Two may begin on purely political grounds, but it will devolve into something worse.

The second article follows up on the first, but is also a rebuttal to the recent "story"  ("liberal day dream" is probably a better description) published at the Small Wars Journal postulating a TEA party led revolt. Using the CW2 Cube listed above, Braken theorizes about a more likely situation--the financial problems reach a point that there is no more money for the "food stamp" program--and how this may lead to a collapse of public order. He writes:

Instead of a small town in the South as the flash point, picture instead a score of U.S. cities in the thrall of riots greater than those experienced in Los Angeles in 1965 (Watts), multiple cities in 1968 (MLK assassination), and Los Angeles again in 1992 (Rodney King). New Yorkers can imagine the 1977 blackout looting or the 1991 Crown Heights disturbance. In fact, the proximate spark of the next round of major riots in America could be any from a long list cribbed from our history.

We have seen them all before, and we shall see them all again as history rhymes along regardless of the century or the generation of humankind nominally in control of events. But the next time we are visited by widespread, large-scale urban riots, a dangerous new escalation may be triggered by a new vulnerability: It’s estimated that the average American home has less than two weeks of food on hand. In poor minority areas, it may be much less. What if a cascading economic crisis, even a temporary one, leads to millions of EBT (electronic benefit transfer) cards flashing nothing but zeroes? Or if the government’s refusal to reimburse them causes supermarket chains to stop accepting them for payment? The government can order the supermarkets to honor the cards, but history’s verdict is clear: If suppliers are paid only with worthless scrip or blinking digits, the food will stop.

Braken sees the collapse progressing in several phases: (i) flash mob looting (we've already had a taste of flash mobs); (ii) flash mob riots (which will not be able to be contained by police, e.g., the London riots); (iii) armed vigilante response; (iv) and government cracking down on the vigilante response; ad infinitum. Braken notes:

A festering race war with police and the military in the middle taking fire from both sides could last for many years, turning many American cities into a living hell. Remember history: when the British Army landed in Northern Ireland in 1969, they were greeted with flowers and applause from the Catholics. The Tommys were welcomed as peacekeepers who would protect them from Protestant violence. That soon changed. Likewise with our tragic misadventure in Lebanon back in 1982 and 1983. Well-intended referees often find themselves taking fire from all sides. It’s as predictable as tomorrow’s sunrise. Why would it be any different when the U.S. Army is sent to Los Angeles, Chicago or Philadelphia to break apart warring ethnic factions?

... Most of us wish we could turn back the calendar to Norman Rockwell’s America. But we cannot, for that America is water long over the dam and gone from our sight, if not from our memories. John Adams said, “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.” If that is true, judging by current and even accelerating cultural shifts, we might already have passed the point of no return.

It is an interesting scenario, and certainly more believable than the liberal wishful thinking in the Small Wars Journal. However, I believe that he leaves out or diminishes one important axis--those that earn or receive their living from the government versus those that do not. Rome's republican government was not overthrown by a raging urban mob, nor was its Empire bankrupted by bread and circuses.