Outer Limit on TEOTWAWKI

I'm reading the book, How Civilizations Die (And Why Islam Is Dying Too) by David Goldman. His premise is that civilizations and nations die when they cease to have children, and that a civilization ceases to have children when they become nihilistic and hedonistic. Essentially, lovers of life more than God.

I have posted about the impact of the birth dearth before, and Goldman's books reflects many thoughts I've had on the subject (although he certainly has put more research and thought into the topic than I have). One of the crucial points, he makes, however, is that many nations (most of those in Europe, the Muslim Middle-East, and Japan) will reach a tipping point in 30 to 50 years where the number of elderly will outnumber the working population, and the number of women able to bear children will decline to a point where the population will simply crash. He notes that countries as diverse as Japan, Germany, and Iran will simply cease to exist within 200 years as their populations will drop below 10% of their current population.

A secondary premise in his book is that not all nations or civilizations go quietly into that good night, but decide to get theirs while they still can. His prediction is that this is what will occur to the Muslim Middle-East, and in particular, Iran. However, these nations will have to act before they are so weakened that they no longer can act aggressively.

Accepting this premise, and ignoring the possibility of black swan events such as a major volcanic eruption, a new plague of some sort, and so on, it appears then that 30 to 50 years would be the outer time frame for the wide spread war and destruction that is predicted in the Bible. It is interesting that of one of the few nations bucking the trend is Israel, which is still well above the replacement level of children. Bluntly, Israeli Jews are out reproducing their Muslim neighbors (including the Palestinians). Thus, as Israel's enemies stare into the brink of declining populations with no hope of escaping the concomitant economic trap, they may decide to attack Israel while they still have the power to do so.

There are some bright points. First, Goldman sees the United States as one of the few Western nations to escape the population trap, mostly due to America's greater religious faith (particularly, Christianity). Second, those groups within the United States and Israel having the largest families are conservative Christians and Jews. The sexual revolution spelled the doom of the liberal left.

China and India present different issues. First, China suffers from many of the problems of a Communist Dictatorship, yet has a vibrant and growing population of Christians. Goldman states that 10% of Chinese self-identify as Christians. Second, Goldman views India as a natural ally of the United States due to its real commitment to democratic principles and rule of law. Although he does not discuss it in much detail, he appears to believe that India will also be one of the nations that will escape the birth dearth. Thus, the coming century may well be less of an Chinese century, and more of an Indian century. It would certainly be a great victory for one of the oldest (if not the oldest) civilization extant.

One of the points this book has raised, and I've seen articles elsewhere, is that this time represents a golden age for the expansion of the Church, at least those that are protestant and evangelical. As he notes, not withstanding crackdowns by Chinese authorities, some 10% or more of the population self-identify as Christians. Evangelical Christianity is spreading rapidly in Africa and South America. Even, under the radar, Christianity is spreading into Islamic nations.

As I've noted before, the future belongs to those that have children. And that, in essence, is the message of Goldman's book.