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Tuesday, April 2, 2024

VIDEO: Number of Newborns in China Drops 50%

The video begins by discussing the sudden closure of China's largest pre-school education company. It then (about the 8:15 mark) discusses the near 50% drop in live births in 2023 compared to 2016 and the resulting closure of maternity hospitals/obstetrics departments. 

China Observer (15 min.)

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    By 2050, the new study forecasts, people living in 155 out of the 204 countries and territories included in the study will be having fewer babies than it would take to maintain a stable population.

    The forecasts show that by 2100, that will increase to 198 countries and territories with birth rates lower than their death rates. In Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Saudi Arabia, rates will fall below one child per female. By that time, the only countries expected to have birth rates that exceed the level needed for population maintenance (at least two births per female) are Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad and Tajikistan.
Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

The argument advanced by the paper is that wealthier countries will need to import large numbers of immigrants to maintain economic growth. I would contest this and argue that wealthier countries should instead concentrate on robotics and automation.

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