Unexpectedly: Nearly 60% of Americans May Own Guns

Typically we hear or read that about a third of Americans own guns. For instance, this Gallup Poll from 2020 showed that 32% of U.S. adults said they personally owned a gun, while a larger percentage, 44%, report living in a gun household--that is, a gun in their home or anywhere on their property. And that is pretty typical. The report on that poll, for instance, noted that the numbers hadn't changed since 2007.

    But was that ever the case? Gun owners are generally reluctant to share information concerning gun ownership with strangers, government officials and employees (e.g., teachers), and even health care providers. So it has always been suspected that many gun owners lie to pollsters about gun ownership. 

    The Washington Examiner reports on an effort to ascertain the true percentage of Americans that own firearms, and its headline says it all: "Boom: Up to 60% of Americans could own guns, twice estimate." From the article:

    A surge in “quiet gun owners,” much like the so-called “silent majority” in political circles, is leading firearms analysts to believe that far more Americans own weapons than the accepted 30% cited in polls.

    At the highest end, it’s possible that up to 60% of Americans own guns, especially with the pandemic-era rise in gun buying among women and minorities, especially in suburban and urban areas.

    At the lowest end, it’s likely that at least 40% of Americans own guns, according to a groundbreaking study of those who lie to pollsters about firearms.

    The study from Rutgers University's New Jersey Gun Violence Research Center is spreading like wildfire in the industry, which for years has tried to accurately estimate United States gun ownership and determine why polls show support for gun control, but then there is little follow through when legislation is proposed.

    Reason Magazine’s J.D. Tuccille put part of the study in the spotlight in an early July post that began the buzz in the gun industry about the potential of far higher U.S. gun ownership.

    He highlighted the study’s conclusion that nearly a third of those polled might be lying when they deny having a firearm.

    Tuccille wrote, “The report dealt in probabilities, with the researchers building profiles of confirmed gun owners. They then applied the profiles across their sample of 3,500 respondents to estimate who was likely fibbing about not owning guns. The results depend on the probability threshold applied, but they came up with 1,206 confirmed owners, between 1,243 and 2,059 non-owners, and between 220 and 1,036 potential but secretive owners lying about their status.”

    That caught the attention of Stephen Gutowski, founder of The Reload blog, who featured Tuccille yesterday in a video post about the numbers and potential impact of the study.

    “This is something that we assumed, perhaps, for a long time,” said Gutowski. “But now there is a study that is quantifying it to some degree. I mean, the amount that they put on it is that almost half the people who said that they don’t own guns fit the model, at least to a certain threshold, for people who do own guns. So that’s a huge discrepancy. That put — the number would rocket up from something like 33% into the 60 percentage range,” he added.