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Thursday, April 2, 2020

Wuhan Virus Update (4/2/2020)

"China Hiding MASSIVE Death Toll from Coronavirus"--China Uncensored (14 min.)
It looks like deaths in Wuhan alone were nearly 40,000.
          A classified report submitted to the White House states that China intentionally lowered its reported number of coronavirus cases, according to three officials familiar with the matter. The officials did not indicate if the report estimates what China’s actual infection rate is.
            The news comes a day after Dr. Deborah Birx, response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, suggested that the U.S. response to the pandemic may not have been as effective as possible due to “missing” data from China.
             “The medical community interpreted the Chinese data as, this was serious, but smaller than anyone expected,” Birx said at a press briefing. “Because, probably…we were missing a significant amount of the data, now that we see what happened to Italy and we see what happened to Spain.”
               China could have prevented 95 percent of coronavirus infections if it had acted sooner to stem the outbreak, according to one study.
          The Bloomberg article link.
                  China’s bid to opportunize on the Covid-19 crisis which originated in its Wuhan city has been on display on multiple fronts. On one hand, Beijing has launched a concerted attempt to reshape the pandemic’s narrative, including the bizarre suggestion by top Chinese officials that the US military planted the virus in China.
                   This has gone hand-in-hand with attempts to drive a diplomatic wedge between the US and its traditional transatlantic allies, some of which have recently committed naval vessels to US-led freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea.
                     China has bid to highlight the US’s perfunctory travel ban on European virus-infected nations while it provided desperately needed medical equipment to worst-hit nations such as Italy and Spain, a gambit some are referring to as Beijing’s “face mask diplomacy.”
                       While trumpeting itself as a global leader at a time of crisis, Beijing is pressing ahead in expanding its strategic and economic footprints in the South China Sea.
                         If ever there was a time for the EU to show the benefit of belonging to an economic bloc with coherent cross-border cooperation you would think it would be now. But that is not quite how things are working out. On the contrary, the EU has erupted into open warfare between north and south. The rifts caused by the 2008/09 financial crisis have been torn open again, with Italy and Spain desperately pleading for help from a reluctant Germany and other northern countries.
                           If anyone thought harmony would reign once troublesome Britain was out of the EU, there was not much evidence of it at a virtual summit held last week to discuss the coronavirus crisis. Italy and Spain pleaded for an EU ‘Marshall Plan’ to lift their already flagging economies, which have never fully recovered from the sovereign debt crisis which followed the last recession. But they were rebuffed by Germany and the Netherlands. They also asked for ‘coronabonds’ to fund the recovery from the crisis, only for that to be dismissed, too. Angela Merkel insisted that Italy and Spain, both deeply damaged from three weeks’ lockdown, apply instead to the European Stability Mechanism, which southern countries blame for the depth of Greece’s problems ten years ago. ‘If what you’re waiting for is coronabonds, they’re never going to arrive,’ she reportedly told the Italians and Spanish. Ouch!
                             Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez was especially upset, refusing to sign the joint declaration reportedly with the words: ‘I cannot accept this vague language or this talk about several weeks, when my country is in the grip of a health emergency. We have asked for a common unemployment insurance and you’re not giving it to me.’ Addressing his citizens the next day he caused surprise by telling them the EU had been too little and too late with help after the 2008/09 crisis – and that it ‘must not fail’ this time.
                               Unlike Britain, Spain and Italy cannot quantitatively-ease their way out of this crisis because, as members of the Euro, the control of their money supply is in the hands of the European Central Bank. It’s President, Christine Lagarde, at one point seemed to dismiss the idea that this crisis had anything to do with her or her bank.
                          The EU (and, by proxy, Germany) want all the perks of being a unified political entity without the responsibilities. We'll probably see something similar here, though. Right now, while the virus is affecting New York and other populous Blue states, huge bailouts and reforms will be approved on a national level. But if those states slow the rates of infections before they peak in more rural Red states, I would expect considerable opposition from Blue states having to provide taxes to help out the Red states. Yes, we may well see Democrats demand fiscal responsibility once it longer impacts their presidential prospects.
                          • Related: A video on YouTube on the subject of "Italians burn EU flag." (The video is less than a minute long).
                          It should be noted that this in no way suggests a bending of the curve when it comes to infections. Slowing the rate of doubling is hardly a victory. But the frightening trajectory of the pandemic may be showing signs of leveling off -- not to where it would flatten out but where it could be managed by our healthcare system.
                                  The Pacific Harbor Line train derailed Tuesday, running through the end of the track and crashing through barriers, finally coming to rest about 250 yards from the docked naval ship.
                                   Federal prosecutors allege train engineer Eduardo Moreno, 44, of San Pedro intended to hit the ship, saying he thought it was "suspicious" and did not believe "the ship is what they say it's for.'"
                                     The train crashed into a concrete barrier at the end of the track, smashed through a steel barrier and a chain-link fence, slid through one parking lot and then a second lot filled with gravel and hit a second chain-link fence. It came to rest after passing under a ramp leading to the Vincent Thomas Bridge. The train remained in that position Wednesday.
                                       No one was injured in the derailment, but the train leaked fuel that required a hazmat response.
                                        As hospitals around the country desperately seek N95 respirator masks to protect health care workers treating COVID-19 patients, the federal government has blocked imports of what might be the world’s most abundant alternative.
                                         That mask is designed to filter out at least 95% of particles that are 0.3 microns or larger in size — the same measure used for the scarce N95 mask. Like the N95, it fits closely around the nose and mouth, creating a seal that decreases the risk of infection. And the Centers for Disease Control has said it’s as effective as N95, which is certified under US testing standards. But this second type of mask, called the KN95, complies with slightly different norms and is made in factories that have not been certified by the US government.
                                            By law, masks, along with most medical devices, can’t be imported or sold in the United States without the Food and Drug Administration’s say-so. Last week, to ease the national shortfall of protective gear, the FDA issued an emergency authorization for non-N95 respirators that had been certified by five foreign countries as well as the European Union. It conspicuously left the KN95 masks out of the emergency authorization.
                                             The omission was all the more startling because in late February the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that KN95 masks were one of numerous “suitable alternatives” to N95 masks “when supplies are short.”
                                          I would also remind you, though, that "[t]he Dutch government recalled 600,000 Chinese-made face masks that had been distributed to medical staff. Officials said the masks did not fit and that their filters did not work as designed." So, caveat emptor.
                                                In the event of urban rioting and violence, I expect the authorities to concentrate their law enforcement efforts on what they perceive as worth defending. They will effectively abandon more violent neighborhoods (and those living in them) to their own devices, seeking instead to protect more peaceful areas from being dragged into the downward spiral. This is a cold, hard calculation based on the resources available. Each city has only so many security personnel available. If they get too thinly stretched, the only answer is to pull them back into a defensible perimeter around trouble spots and let the fires burn themselves out, so to speak. The USA is not alone in adopting that tactic. For example, a French official has effectively conceded it'll happen in some of that country's banlieues as well, infamous as they are for their insularity and crime levels (much like inner-city American ghettoes). Residents of the banlieues are already disregarding quarantine regulations, and actively resisting security measures.
                                                 For that matter, many of us in the USA (but not all of us) are fortunate that we live in a reasonably stable society, with support networks available to most of those who need them. The Third World is much worse off. For example, to see what the coronavirus pandemic is doing in a city in the Philippines, read the last couple of weeks' entries on the blog "Come and Make It". Seriously - click over there and read them. They're eye-witness accounts, straight from the horse's mouth, so to speak. Poorer neighborhoods in some US cities are not unlike that place. I won't be surprised to see similar developments, and similar reactions.
                                                 If you live in or near a major US city, particularly one with a large homeless population and/or a serious inner-city crime problem, you need to be aware that you're at greater risk of exposure to such problems. If you doubt that, consider that retailers in those cities are already preparing for it. (Some claim that's only because their insurance companies insist on it. Well, why do you think they insist? Isn't it because they have a fairly good idea of what to expect?) ....
                                          Read the whole thing.
                                                  The demand for food aid has increased as much as eightfold in some areas, according to an investigation by the Guardian, which gives a nationwide snapshot of the hunger crisis facing the US as millions become unemployed.
                                                    About one in three people seeking groceries at not-for-profit pantries last month have never previously needed emergency food aid, according to interviews with a dozen providers across the country.
                                                     The national guard has been deployed to help food banks cope with rising demand in cities including Cleveland, Phoenix and St Louis amid growing concerns that supplies may run low as the crisis evolves. Overstretched food pantries are switching to drive-thrus and home deliveries to minimize the spread of Covid-19 as almost 300 million Americans are urged to stay at home.
                                                • A look back at the last time our economy crashed so hard: "Hunger on the March"--Progressive Historians. The article is about the hunger riots that broke out during the Great Depression. From the article:
                                                  The first reported food riot of the Great Depression happened January 3, 1931, in England, Arkansas.
                                                    H. C. Coney, a tenant farmer from Lonoke County, was visited by a neighbor who was distressed because she was unable to feed her children. He decided that he must do something, so he loaded his truck with several other neighbors and headed to England to demand food from the Red Cross. Though the original group of men consisted of approximately fifty farmers, some armed, reports state that anywhere from 300 to 500 came together once in the city proper. The Red Cross, which lacked the forms necessary for people to apply for aid, took the brunt of their anger for the promised food never given to those in need. The merchants, either out of fear of what the mob was capable of or out of the kindness of their hearts, offered food to the people that day
                                                      There was no violence that day, so calling it a riot may not have been the best description. However, it remains significant for one reason - it was the first, and last, food riot that the national media reported.
                                                      The article goes on to note that there subsequent riots in "San Francisco, Oklahoma City, St. Paul, Van Dyke, and many other cities," but without any national media attention. I've argued before that it was these riots that prompted the National Firearms Act, and not the violence of organized crime due to prohibition.
                                                      • Another real life lesson for those planning on bugging out: "We Got Stuck in the North Carolina County Closed for COVID-19"--Road and Track. The author and his family decided to take a day trip to Graham County, North Carolina, to shoot some pictures for an upcoming article, and got caught up in the County's blockage of all roads into or out of the county. An excerpt:
                                                      An illuminated highway sign warned that the road was closed at Tapoco Power Station, 3/27. It happens sometimes, either due to a crash or roadwork, but it was Saturday, the 28th, and the road was full of drivers and riders enjoying 129’s tangle of apexes. Kiddo pointed and cheered as a parade of Hondas and Ducatis came screaming past in the opposite lane, knees down and throttles gapped wide. But when we crossed the bridge below the Cheoah Dam, we found concrete barriers blocking the road from ditch to ditch. There were no workers. No checkpoint. No detour instructions.
                                                      They found a way around the road block, but when they tried to leave, all the routes were closed. They finally arrived at a road block with law enforcement that let them leave.
                                                               In Blaine County Idaho, home to Sun Valley ski resort, more than half of the houses are rental properties. As of yesterday 228 had tested positive for the disease, around 10 percent of its population. 
                                                                'People come here from all over the world,' ER doctor Brent Russell told the Idaho Statesman. 'When I'm in the ER, I get people from New York, Washington D.C., San Francisco, Seattle. Every week there's people from those places. Most likely someone from an urban area or multiple people from urban areas came here and they just set it off.'
                                                            Blaine County is also the only county in Idaho that voted for Hillary in 2016.
                                                              From February 4 to February 28, 2020, 62 patients suffering from COVID-19 were diagnosed and admitted to Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University. All participants were randomized in a parallel-group trial, 31 patients were assigned to receive an additional 5-day HCQ (400 mg/d) treatment, Time to clinical recovery (TTCR), clinical characteristics, and radiological results were assessed at baseline and 5 days after treatment to evaluate the effect of HCQ. Key findings: For the 62 COVID-19 patients, 46.8% (29 of 62) were male and 53.2% (33 of 62) were female, the mean age was 44.7 (15.3) years. No difference in the age and sex distribution between the control group and the HCQ group. But for TTCR, the body temperature recovery time and the cough remission time were significantly shortened in the HCQ treatment group. Besides, a larger proportion of patients with improved pneumonia in the HCQ treatment group (80.6%, 25 of 32) compared with the control group (54.8%, 17 of 32). Notably, all 4 patients progressed to severe illness that occurred in the control group. However, there were 2 patients with mild adverse reactions in the HCQ treatment group. Significance: Among patients with COVID-19, the use of HCQ could significantly shorten TTCR and promote the absorption of pneumonia.
                                                                Note that this study only used hydroxychloroquine without the Azithromycin.
                                                                         A leading member of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and former Harvard School of Public Health dean, Dr Harvey Fineberg, told CNN that while surgical masks should be reserved for health care workers, he himself is going to be wearing a bandanna or other face covering. 
                                                                          Dr Anthony Fauci, a White House coronavirus task force member and leading infectious disease expert said that the subject of having Americans cover their faces in public is a 'very active discussion' among the committee.  
                                                                           Research remains mixed on whether surgical masks work as well as N95 respirators and whether cloth face coverings do much at all to prevent infection, but Dr Fauci noted that they might be protective, and certainly wont do harm - as long as medical workers have enough. 
                                                                      My wife sewed up a bunch for our family, as well as to give to other people (including a niece that is a CNA in the Seattle area). I've been carrying one in my bag, but haven't started using them--that may change.
                                                                      • "Christian McMillen's Pandemics: A Very Short Introduction and Marta Wayne  and Benjamin Bolker's Infectious Disease: A Very Short Introduction are both excellent little primers."
                                                                      • "Nancy Bristow's American Pandemic: The Lost Worlds of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic is written in a dry academic style: it is a history written by a historian for other historians. "
                                                                      • "David Randall's Black Death at the Golden Gate is a fantastically readable book  that describes the bubonic plague breakout that swept San Fransisco from 1900 to 1907."
                                                                      • "Lee Clarke's Worst Cases: Terror and Catastrophe in the Popular Imagination is by far the most disappointing book on this list."
                                                                      • "Rebecca Solnit's A Paradise Built in Hell: The Extraordinary Communities That Arise in Disaster is another book I strongly recommend, but with caveats." His caveats have to do with his view of Solnit's premise that people don't panic in disasters. However, that is not really Solnit's premise: rather, it is that after a disaster, people tend to pull together and start solving problems, rather than the mass looting and rioting that civil authorities like to imagine. She is particularly critical of the reporting of the crises following Hurricane Katrina.
                                                                      I would add to his list the following three:
                                                                      • Plague: The Mysterious Past and Terrifying Future of the World's Most Dangerous Disease by Wendy Orent. While much of the book is focused on the Black Plague of the Middle-Ages, it looks at instances of bubonic plague both before and after that, including Soviet efforts to weaponize plague.
                                                                      • The Great Mortality: An Intimate History of the Black Death, the Most Devastating Plague of All Time by John Kelly. This one focuses on the Black Plague of the Middle-Ages. While it covers much of the same ground as Orent's work, it goes into much greater detail as to the Black Plague.
                                                                      • There are many articles and blog posts showing up that attempt to predict how the coronavirus outbreak will change public opinions on many topics. One of those is immigration, and that seems to be borne out by this: "Harvard/Harris Poll: 5-in-6 Americans Want to End Immigration from Mexico"--Breitbart. It probably did not help that Mexicans protested and blocked highways to prevent Americans from entering Mexico.
                                                                              The Coast Guard is directing cruise ships with passengers that may be infected with coronavirus to stay offshore “indefinitely” and prepare to treat passengers aboard their ships, according to a safety bulletin issued Sunday.
                                                                               The Coast Guard’s new regulations mandate all ships in U.S. waters with more than 50 people give daily updates on their medical caseloads or face civil or criminal punishment. Coast Guard Rear Adm. E.C. Jones, whose district covers Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Puerto Rico, signed the bulletin preventing ship evacuations.
                                                                                  “This is necessary as shore-side medical facilities may reach full capacity and lose the ability to accept and effectively treat additional critically-ill patients,” the memo said. “A potential evacuee has better access to comfortable surroundings and the medical staff on board the foreign passenger vessel where care is already being provided.”
                                                                                   Foreign-flagged vessels “that loiter beyond U.S. territorial seas” should first attempt to evacuate passengers through their countries, the regulations say. Many of South Florida’s cruise ships are registered in the Bahamas, a country with limited hospital capacity, The Associated Press noted. 
                                                                                     Dozens of cruise ships are waiting at Port Miami and Port Everglades or sitting offshore because of the pandemic. Most of the ships are carrying only crew, but Carnival Corp., which owns nine cruise lines, told the Securities and Exchange Commission that it had more than 6,000 passengers on undocked ships.
                                                                                       Officials in Florida have been debating whether Carnival’s Holland America cruise ships, the Zaandam and Rotterdam, that hold a combined 300 Americans could dock at Port Everglades. Four people have died on the Zaandam, with two deaths being attributed to COVID-19, and nine have tested positive for coronavirus. 
                                                                                         Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has been hesitant about letting the cruises unload in his state, saying it “doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.” But President Trump said he would speak to the governor to “do what’s right … for humanity,” according to the AP.
                                                                                      At the same time, the spread of COVID-19, especially along Afghanistan’s western border with Iran, is further destabilizing the peace effort. In Herat Province, “thousands of Afghans are returning from Iran” to escape the outbreak, Mahdi said. Their arrival puts more stress on a woefully inadequate health care system.
                                                                                        While much of the Western world is in quarantine and many fear that the worst is still yet to come from the coronavirus, many Muslims around the world aren’t worried at all: they are sure that Allah will protect them from the plague. As a result, they’re gathering in large numbers, thereby endangering their coreligionists and infidels alike.
                                                                                          The article goes on to describe imams in Canada, Iraq, Gaza, Cameroon, Nigeria, Yemen, and Pakistan that are encouraging followers and worshipers to continue to gather, claiming that the pandemic was sent to punish the West and/or the Jews. No mention of China being the source of the infection in the quotes from the various imams.
                                                                                                  With a population of only 90,000, Dougherty County has registered 24 deaths, far more than any other county in the state, with six more possible coronavirus deaths under investigation, according to Michael L. Fowler, the local coroner. Ninety percent of the people who died were African-American, he said.
                                                                                                   The region’s hospitals are overloaded with sick and dying patients, having registered nearly 600 positive cases. Last week, Gov. Brian Kemp dispatched the National Guard to help stage additional intensive care beds and relieve exhausted doctors and nurses.
                                                                                                     Ms. Johnson said that she assumed one of the guests had brought the virus to her brother’s funeral, where “you hug and you kiss and you embrace.” But she had no more information than that.
                                                                                                        Several suspected police impersonators directed a driver into a roadblock in Greeley early Friday morning and questioned the driver about why she was out despite the state’s coronavirus stay-at-home order.
                                                                                                          The woman told Greeley police that she was driving around 4:50 a.m. when she was stopped near 10th Street and Promontory Circle by a man in a dark uniform who was wearing a gas mask.
                                                                                                           The man directed her into an area marked with traffic cones where three or four silver cars were parked, some with red and blue lights flashing in their dashboards, Cmdr. Rafael Gutierrez said Sunday. At least one car had a spotlight.
                                                                                                             The woman said she saw multiple people wearing yellow traffic vests. In the roadblock, a man wearing a baton and pepper spray questioned the driver about why she was out, Gutierrez said.
                                                                                                                “The individual asked to see her license, insurance and registration, and demanded explanation as to why she was violating COVID-19 law,” Gutierrez said. “He told the woman she could get charged with a violation for being out. And apparently he showed her something she thought looked like a ticket but it was never given to her.”
                                                                                                                 After about 10 minutes, the man let the woman leave, Gutierrez said. The woman told police she was the first of between five and seven cars to be directed into the roadblock. The woman did not see any badges or logos, Gutierrez said.
                                                                                                                   Greeley police did not conduct the roadblock, and officers checked with other law enforcement agencies, including the Weld County Sheriff’s Office and the Colorado State Patrol, Gutierrez said. No agencies were conducting any sort of operation like what the woman described. Additionally, no law enforcement agency checked the woman’s name or license plate through official channels, he said.
                                                                                                                       Snitches are emerging as enthusiastic allies as cities, states and countries work to enforce directives meant to limit person-to-person contact amid the virus pandemic that has claimed tens of thousands of lives worldwide. They’re phoning police and municipal hotlines, complaining to elected officials and shaming perceived scofflaws on social media.
                                                                                                                        In hard-hit New York City, police arrested the owner of an illegal Brooklyn speakeasy where a dozen people were found drinking and gambling after someone called 311 with a tip.
                                                                                                                           In Chicago, a yoga studio that believed it qualified as an essential health and wellness service was closed after the city — tipped off by several residents — disagreed. 
                                                                                                                             According to a statement from HHS on Thursday, the FBI discovered the stashed medical supplies during an operation led by the DOJ's Hoarding and Price Gouging Task Force on Monday.
                                                                                                                              The federal health agency was notified of the find and used its authority under under Defense Production Act to order the seizure of the supplies. 
                                                                                                                        • Related: "An Example of Why OPSEC is Important"--a post I did way back in 2011 about a news story from 1918 where a man was charged with hoarding food. His downfall was also that he had been selling from his stockpile.
                                                                                                                        • Related: "Duterte tells Philippine police to shoot dead lockdown troublemakers"--AFP. Per the article, "[h]ours before Duterte gave the order in a speech late Wednesday, nearly two dozen people from a slum community in the capital Manila were arrested for holding a protest that accused the government of failing to provide food aid to the poor."
                                                                                                                               Global oil storage could reach maximum capacity within weeks, energy analysts have told CNBC, as the coronavirus crisis dramatically reduces consumption and some of the world’s most powerful crude producers start to ramp up their output.
                                                                                                                                 The coronavirus pandemic has meant countries have effectively had to shut down, with many governments imposing draconian measures on the daily lives of billions of people. It has created an unprecedented demand shock in energy markets, with storage space – both onshore and offshore – quickly running out.
                                                                                                                              The Saudis have increased production seeing this as an opportunity to knock out American oil producers (particularly frackers). But American producers don't have to hire expensive ships to carry oil half-way around the world, so I guess we'll see how this works out. In any event, President Trump is using the opportunity (and low prices) to top off the strategic oil reserves.That will probably be purchased from American sourced oil.
                                                                                                                              • "Africa Is Two to Three Weeks Away From Height of Virus Storm"--Bloomberg. Key point: "A lack of resources and staff means authorities must work fast to limit the spread of the disease on a continent where hospitals have an average of just 1.8 beds per 1,000 people, UNECA data show. While Africa accounts for 1% of global health expenditure, it carries 23% of the disease burden, including hundreds of thousands of deaths each year from malaria, HIV/Aids and tuberculosis."
                                                                                                                                      In the lead up to the shutdown, Lagos, a bustling metropolis with around 20 million people, was thronging with crowds as shoppers raced around to stock up to beat the 11 p.m. deadline set for the shutdown of the city against coronavirus.
                                                                                                                                        But many could barely afford to stock up as prices had increased.
                                                                                                                                          "Some people are shouting, they are crying and going home without buying anything. Things are too expensive," Felicia Emmanuel, a trader at the Obalende market told CNN.
                                                                                                                                      "If we lock down populations where people rely on the informal sector for their earnings and livings, there will come a time when people begin to balance between: Do I stay home and die of hunger and I can't feed a family of five, six, or seven, versus do I just brave it and go out and see what will happen? Then you begin to look at a scenario where you will have an uprising of the population that leads to a serious security issue for the continent," he said.
                                                                                                                                             It was only a matter of time before the coronavirus pandemic started to show a rupture in Western relations with China. Today, the market got some of the first hints of a rising probability of “decoupling”.
                                                                                                                                               Evidence came today in the form of two BBC reports, one of the U.K. government of Boris Johnson (who has COVID-19 now) saying there would be ramifications for China failing to share how they stopped the virus from spreading. One such punishment was getting rid of Huawei in their 5G program.
                                                                                                                                                  Over the weekend, the Daily Mail reported that the Johnson team doubted China’s SARS-CoV-2 infection count, which totals around 81,000, saying they were probably off by a factor of 40.
                                                                                                                                                   The wide spreading disease throughout Europe is turning people off to China in leadership positions who, only a few months ago, were fine with Beijing and thought the U.S. trade war with China was just Trump being Trump. Three years ago, Davos Man invited Xi Jinping to the World Economic Forum, heralding him as the new leader of the free trade world.
                                                                                                                                                     The other signal today comes from news reports that Spain, Turkey and The Netherlands are angry with their Chinese partner over what they described as faulty medical equipment used to combat COVID-19.
                                                                                                                                                  On that note, a couple pictures that I thought you might enjoy:


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