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Friday, March 6, 2020

Coronavirus and Locust Update (3/6/2020)

Current totals are 101,449 confirmed cases worldwide, 3,456 deaths, and 55,648 recovered. The United States has 272 confirmed cases and 14 deaths, which is still minuscule considering our population. Contrast that with Italy and Iran which each have over 2,500 confirmed cases and 197 and 124 deaths, respectively. And we are still seeing very few cases (and no deaths) from Sub-Saharan Africa and Central and South America. Thus, when I see headlines such as "15 MILLION people will die and the global economy will take a $2.3 TRILLION hit from coronavirus in the BEST-CASE scenario, new study predicts," I'm a little skeptical.

     Dr. Nelson L. Michael, Ph.D., director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research--i.e., the group best posed to have correct information about this--has again stressed that the best thing for the average Joe and Jane to avoid catching the virus is to simply be sure to wash your hands. And the EPA has released a list of products that can be used to kill the virus, including Lysol, Clorox, and Purell products. According to the article, "[c]oronaviruses are what are called enveloped viruses, 'meaning they are one of the easiest types of viruses to kill with the appropriate disinfectant product,' the EPA says." But don't bother with hand sanitizers having an alcohol content less than 70%.

      But let's say that you catch the infection. What are your chances? Well according to the WHO and Chinese scientists, 1.7 per cent of women who catch the virus will die compared to 2.8 per cent of men. But breaking the statistics down further, we see that the elderly are disproportionately likely to die (10.5% lethality), as are persons with cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer and chronic respiratory diseases. And, in fact, we see that 6 of the U.S. deaths were at a single nursing home in Washington state.

     China is now blaming the U.S. for the coronavirus outbreak, according to Breitbart.

     And speaking of despots, the New York legislature gave NY governor Cuomo sweeping new emergency powers in a middle of the night vote. Another case of passing the bill in order to see what is in it. As the linked article reports:
“I’m scared or concerned because I don’t know what the governor has in mind,” said Assemblymember Richard Gottfried, the longtime chair of his chamber’s health committee.
The article continues:
      Though New York law already allows Cuomo to suspend provisions of any state or local statute that would delay in coping with a declared disaster, the new measure goes further, broadening the definition of disaster from a “past occurrence” to something that is “impending.”

      The new law specifically added “disease outbreak” to a list of triggering events alongside “epidemic,” and gives Cuomo new power to issue directives “necessary to cope with” a broad list of potential disasters, from tornados to cyberattacks to volcanic eruptions.

      The definition of disasters is general enough that critics fear Cuomo, a governor who already enjoys aggressively wielding executive power, can abuse the new law in a wide array of circumstances to override existing law.

       “It’s a reckless expansion of executive power,” said State Senator Julia Salazar, a Brooklyn Democrat who voted against the bill.

 * * *

       Part of the challenge of understanding the expansion is the lack of specificity in the bill language. Since the governor already has expansive emergency powers, adding more could theoretically justify all kinds of maneuvers, like the declaration of martial law, unilateral travel restrictions, and mass quarantines.

      The limits are largely unknown.
This panicked reaction among the political class is probably going to prove a greater danger in the long run than the virus itself.

     In a "refugees welcome" and coronavirus cross-over, it is being reported that coronavirus Patient Zero in Italy was a Pakistani migrant who refused to self-isolate. Just kept delivering Chinese food for a restaurant. And I'm not making that up.

     Turning to the locust issue, we see that in Asia, the locust have hit Pakistan--the worst it has been in 30 years--and in Africa they have reached Congo’s Lake Albert region--the first major locust swarm to strike Congo since 1944. That means that Pakistan has locust just as bad or worse some 30 years ago, and Congo has something just as bad 76 years ago.

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