Musing on the Russian Adventure into Syria

These are just some thoughts on the events happening in the Middle-East. .

First, Iranian physical isolation of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States is almost complete. Iran's growing military capabilities (soon to be augmented by its possession of nuclear weapons), will put it in the position to close passage through the Straits of Hormuz, cutting off the ability to export petroleum via standard shipping lanes. The attempt to overthrow Assad and replace him with a government willing to allow a pipeline through Syria is probably off the table--Russian involvement means that Assad (or some other puppet of Iran and/or Russia) blocks that move. And a proposed pipeline through Yemen is foreclosed--at least for now--by the Iranian backed civil war there.  

(Source)

Second, the fact that Russia has been moving in various radars and electronic warfare equipment designed for blocking our airborne radar, and the movement of aircraft, indicates that Russia will probably establish a "no-fly" zone over Syria. (And I read today that some in the U.S. are urging that the U.S. create its own "no-fly" zone, which would seriously irritate the Russians). This will be a prelude to a more permanent presence of Russian and/or Iranian troops in Syria to act as peace keepers. Russia is going to wring some serious concessions out of Assad. Consequently, I fully expect Russia to expand its port facility and airbase, allowing it to keep aircraft, armor, and ships "pre-deployed" to the region. Iran will probably also keep troops in Syria. And word today is that China may also be sending troops to join in the fray.

Third, Israel will, whether it likes it or not, play a role. Will Saudi Arabia or other Gulf States engage in some sort of rapprochement with Israel? After all, a pipeline through Syria could easily be shifted to run through Israel; and Saudi Arabia would benefit from any strikes Israel makes against Iranian nuclear facilities. And, once ISIS is destroyed, what will Iran do with all those troops sitting on the border with Israel? Especially if it could somehow convince (drag) Russia into joining an attack on Israel?

Interesting times indeed.