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Monday, January 8, 2024

The Great Replacement: Disenfranchising White Voters

As Wikipedia tells us, "Die Lösung" ("The Solution") "is a famous satirical German poem by Bertolt Brecht about the East German uprising of 1953" written in mid-1953, but not published until in 1959 in a West German newspaper. The text of the poem reads:

After the uprising of the 17th of June 

The Secretary of the Writers' Union

Had leaflets distributed on the Stalinallee

Which stated that the people

Had squandered the confidence of the government

And could only win it back

By redoubled work [quotas]. Would it not in that case

Be simpler for the government

To dissolve the people

And elect another?

The Democrats seem to have decided on the latter option. 

    You've probably heard old-timers talk about how they didn't leave the Democrat party, but the Democrat party left them. This had actually started in the early 1960s as the Democratic party became increasingly under the control of social liberals (Democrats had been social conservatives prior to the 1960s) and accelerated after 1968 when leftist radicals targeted the Democratic Party for takeover. The consequence of the leftward swing of the Democratic party was a gradual alienation of much of its traditional base, including blue-collar workers. This 1984 article from The Christian Science Monitor, for instance, related:

In wooing the labor vote, campaign planners say, Reagan is mainly addressing the rank and file instead of the union leaders, who have largely endorsed [Democrat candidate] Walter Mondale. Mr. Lake says some effort will be made to persuade local labor leaders at least to refrain from attacking the President, knowing that his support among labor remains strong. A recent survey by Reagan pollster Richard B. Wirthlin showed the President leading Mondale among blue-collar workers by more than 50 percent.

 Although the article attempts to paint the issue as mostly an issue of race, crime, liberal mores (or lack thereof), memories of Jimmy Carter's disastrous presidency and economic policies (Mondale was Carter's vice-president), and more, weighed on the minds of blue-collar voters. And the reality is that whites have tended to vote Republican at the national level since at least the mid-1970s, probably earlier. As this 2016 article from the Center for American Progress observed:

The national exit polls have broken out their survey results by racial group since 1976, and since that year, the Republican nominee for president has received, on average, 54.8 percent of the white vote, while the Democratic nominee has garnered an average of 40.6 percent. In 1980, 1992, and 1996, third-party candidacies affected the distribution of the white vote. The highest percentage secured by a Republican was the 66 percent won by Ronald Reagan in his landslide re-election in 1984; the lowest Democratic number was Walter Mondale’s 34 percent in that same election. Jimmy Carter received the largest percentage of white votes for a Democrat with 48 percent in 1976; George H.W. Bush received the lowest at 41 percent in 1992 when Ross Perot ran, splitting the white vote and dropping Bush from the 60 percent white share he received in 1988.

Although there are probably numerous reasons why the Democrats turned away from trying to win back their support among white blue collar workers, the fact remains that rather than try and win back its traditional voter base, the Democrat Party decided to opt for "dissolving the people and electing another".

    Which brings us to today. Fortune relates that in 2023, "[t]he United States added 1.6 million people, more than two-thirds of which came from international migration, bringing the nation’s population total to 334.9 million. It marks the second year in a row that immigration powered population gains." But that is only the legal immigration. The Daily Mail reported last week that "More than 302,000 illegal migrants crossed into the US in December setting the record for most entries in HISTORY as Biden grapples with the fallout of his administration's policies". NPR reports that "[a]ccording to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, federal agents encountered roughly 2.5 million migrants at the southern border in 2023." Another article pegs the number at 3.2 million. Who knows how many illegals aliens weren't encountered.

    The Democrats, of course, want to turn these illegal aliens (or, at the least, their children) into voters. Andrew Korybko notes that the Mexican president has asked that the United States grant work visas illegal aliens that have been working in the U.S. for more than 10 years, to which Biden seems amicable. Korybko explains:

    If Biden complies with the first of his three requests, then that would place 10 million Hispanics on the path to American citizenship since they could turn their work visa into a green card, after which they could apply for citizenship with full voting rights after five years. The Pew Research Center cited US Census Bureau data from 2020 to report last November that at least 1.6 million illegals live in Texas and 900,000 in Florida, which could have serious implications for forthcoming elections if they’re legalized.

    The UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative “determined that Latino voters were decisive in sending President-elect Joe Biden to the White House”, with Latinos in 12 of the 13 states that they analyzed “support[ing] Biden over President Donald Trump by a margin of at least 2 to 1. And in nine of the 13 — including the battleground states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — the margin was at least 3 to 1. Only in Florida was Biden’s margin among Latino voters less than 2 to 1.”

    With this trend in mind and recalling that Trump won Texas by a little more than 600,00 votes and Florida by less than 400,000 according to the Federal Election Commission’s official results from the 2020 election, those two could permanently turn blue by 2032 if their illegals obtained citizenship. Battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin could join them considering the thin margins within which Biden won them and their own large illegal populations.

    Referring back to the Pew Research Center’s official Census-informed report, it’s estimated that between 75k-175k live in Michigan and Wisconsin while 175k-400k live in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Seeing as how Biden won those states by around 150,000, 20,000, 10,000, 10,000, 40,000, and 80,000 votes respectively, each of them with the possible exception of Michigan would easily turn Democrat if those illegals obtained citizenship and the UCLA’s identified trend holds as expected.

    It was predicted in mid-November 2020 that “Biden’s America Would Be A Dystopian Hellhole” because “Amnesty & Open Borders Will Revolutionize The Electoral Landscape” by placing the US on “The Path To One-Party Rule”, which could then lead to mass disarmament and more state-backed racist violence. The first step in this plan is to place all illegal immigrants on the path to US citizenship, which is precisely what [the Mexican president] just proposed amidst the US’ fierce debate over its de facto open southern border.

Korybko's fear is that the Republicans, which so far have been holding up continued funding of the Ukraine war in exchange for increased border security will "compromise" with the Democrats and agree to a promise of border security in exchange for an amnesty for some number of illegals already here, resulting in the permanent shift in the electorate and one-party rule. 

    He has good reason to fear such an outcome. Reagan fell for such a deal in 1986: a promise of tighter security at the border in exchange for amnesty for illegal aliens that entered the country prior to 1982. And we've seen how that turned out. 

    But the Democrats were able to turn California permanently "blue". For 36 years, California had voted for the Republican presidential candidate in all but one election. Beginning in 1992 and ever since, it has voted in favor of the Democrat candidate. Similarly, "[b]oth of California's U.S. Senate seats have been held by Democrats since 1992."

    My belief is that the Democrats will get their "amnesty" or "work visas" or some sort of compromise that will ensure that starting with the 2028 election Democrats will have a permanent hold on the presidency and the Congress. 

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