Cheap Smart Weapons

The Economist has an article about a revolution in smart weapons, that will yield less expensive guided missiles. From the article:

A Tomahawk cruise missile costs about $1.5m, and even the Hellfire, an air-to-ground rocket that weighs a mere 50kg, is $115,000 a pop. In exchange for, say, an enemy tank, that is probably a fair price to pay. To knock out a pick-up truck crewed by a few lightly armed guerrillas, however, it seems a little expensive, and using its shoulder-fired cousin the Javelin ($147,000) to kill individual soldiers in foxholes, as is often the case in Afghanistan, is positively profligate. Clearly, something has to change. And changing it is.

An early sign of this change came in March, with the deployment in Afghanistan of the APKWS II (Advanced Precision Kill Weapons System) made by BAE Systems and Northrop Grumman. The APKWS II is a smart version of the old-fashioned 70mm (2.75-inch) rocket, which has been used by America’s armed forces since 1948. It is also cheap, as guided missiles go, costing $18,000 a shot.

The APKWS II is loaded and fired in the same way (pictured above) as its unguided predecessors, from the same 19-round pods, making its use straightforward. The difference is that it can strike with an accuracy of one metre because it has been fitted with a laser-seeking head which follows a beam pointed at the target by the missile’s operators. This controls a set of fins that can steer the missile to its destination.

. . . Meanwhile, the American navy has been working on its own cheap guided missile, the Low-Cost Imaging Terminal Seeker (LCITS), which it tested successfully last year.

The LCITS is another upgraded 70mm weapon, but instead of laser guidance it picks out its targets by their heat signature. Because the operators do not need to keep pointing a laser at the target, they can fire several missiles in quick succession—a useful feature if a ship is being attacked by a swarm of boats.

. . . The most determined effort to develop a small, cheap guided weapon, though, is the Forward Firing Miniature Munition (F2M2, or Spike missile), from the Naval Air Weapons Station in China Lake, California. Steve Felix, the F2M2’s project manager, wanted to make such a weapon for just $5,000, using off-the-shelf components. The result, which weighs less than 3kg and is the size of a baguette, is claimed to be the world’s smallest.

Spike has been tested successfully as a shoulder-launched missile, and also fired from drones. It has an ingenious optical-guidance system—a camera that can either lock on to an operator-designated object or can pick up a laser spot and home in on it. It has a range of 1,500 metres and, though the warhead is too small to damage a tank, it can destroy cars and other light targets far more cheaply than the alternatives.

What Happens When You Shoot A Gun Underwater

Full article, with additional photos, here.

I wonder if the "grooves" in the "tornado" match up with the grooves on the bullet from the rifling?

Daniel's Seventy Weeks Prophecy

One of the more interesting prophecies in the Old Testament is that given through an angelic visitation to Daniel in Daniel 9. At that time, Daniel was studying the words of Jeremiah concerning the destruction of Jerusalem and exile of the Jews, and realized that the time was near that the 70 year exile was to end. Daniel wrote:

In the first year of his reign [i.e., Darius] I Daniel understood by books the number of the years, whereof the word of the Lord came to Jeremiah the prophet, that he would accomplish seventy years in the desolations of Jerusalem.

(Footnotes and verse number omitted). He then proceeded to pray and fast that the 70 year desolation of Jerusalem would end. (See Daniel 9:3-19). In response, "about the time of the evening oblation", the angel Gabriel appeared and told Daniel the following:

Seventy weeks are determined upon thy people and upon thy holy city, to finish the transgression, and to make an end of sins, and to make reconciliation for iniquity, and to bring in everlasting righteousness, and to seal up the vision and prophecy, and to anoint the most Holy. Know therefore and understand, that from the going forth of the commandment to restore and to build Jerusalem unto the Messiah the Prince shall be seven weeks, and threescore and two weeks: the street shall be built again, and the wall, even in troublous times. And after threescore and two weeks shall Messiah be cut off, but not for himself: and the people of the prince that shall come shall destroy the city and the sanctuary; and the end thereof shall be with a flood, and unto the end of the war desolations are determined. And he shall confirm the covenant with many for one week: and in the midst of the week he shall cause the sacrifice and the oblation to cease, and for the overspreading of abominations he shall make it desolate, even until the consummation, and that determined shall be poured upon the desolate.

(Daniel 9:24-27) (Footnotes and verse numbers omitted).

To understand the prophecy, it is important to note that the ancient Jews used the term translated as "week" to not only mean a period of seven days, but also a period of seven years. The "week" referred to here is a period of seven years, and, thus, the prophecy is concerned with a period of (70 x 7, or) 490 years.

However, this period is broken up. First, the prophecy describes a period "from the going forth of the commandment to restore and to build Jerusalem unto the Messiah" of 7 weeks (i.e., 49 years) plus 62 weeks (i.e., 434 years), for a total of 69 weeks (483 years). (It is not clear why the first 49 years is considered separate from the second 434 year period). Second, at the end of the second period (i.e., at the end of the 69th week), the "Messiah [shall] be cut off" (i.e., executed). Finally, there is the last week (7 years) in which there shall be a covenant between "the prince that shall come" for that one week, but which covenant will be broken "in the midst of the week."

The most comprehensive study of the meaning of this prophecy is in The Coming Prince by Sir Robert Anderson. (For those with Kindles, I would note that the Kindle edition is only 99 cents). Anderson recognized that the "year" referred to in the prophecy was a "Levitical" year (or lunar year) of 360 days. Thus, the first 69 weeks until the Savior was executed would be 173,880 days. Anderson determined that the decree issued by Artaxerxes allowing the rebuilding of Jerusalem's walls was on March 14, 445 B.C. According to Anderson's research, Christ's crucifixion was on April 6, 32 A.D. Per Anderson's research, there is exactly 173,880 days between the two dates.

So why hasn't this interpretation been more widely adopted? It is, after all, an incredible prediction, and should be proof of the validity of the scriptures.

First, and foremost, I would put it down to a lack of faith. Even among people that profess to be Christian, there is a strange reluctance to admit the validity of prophecy or that it will be literally fulfilled.  (Turn to almost any article in Time or Newsweek about Christ and whether he was a real person, and you will find many examples of people who profess to be students of Christ, but whose hearts are far from him).

Second, there is a possibility of a discrepancy in Anderson's calculations, which is seized on to dismiss his theory. My copy of Anderson's book indicates:

Based on a subsequent work of Harold W. Hoehner, "Daniel's Seventy Weeks and New Testament Chronology" -- Bibliothca Sacra, Jan.-Mar. 1975, a discrepancy of ten days was found in the chronology with respect to the beginning of the 70th week [actually, they mean the end of the 69th week].

Assuming that Hoehner is correct, does it really invalidate Anderson's theory? Not really. As anyone that works with data knows, the data you get out is only as good as what you put in. This shows up in the concept of significant digits. The prophecy itself actually only concerns itself with years, not days. While it is necessary to know that you are only dealing with 360 day years, and you may have to calculate out the number of days, and take account of leap years, etc., to translate the period into our reckoning, in the end the prophecy only directs you to a particular year. A ten day discrepancy is not significant.

In the Baker Illustrated Bible Commentary, it notes in reference to Isaiah 20:2 (where Isaiah is commended to walk stripped and barefoot for three years) that "[t]he period of three years need not be exactly thirty-six months, because in oriental fashion, any portion of a year is considered a year." (Location 17879). In the same vein, the 483 years in the prophecy need not be exactly 173,880 days. (We do the same thing--e.g., if I told you I was 30 years old, you would not assume that I was exactly 10,950 days old (plus whatever would accrue due to leap years)).

Like most prophecies, there are many levels of meaning to be explored. For instance, the identity of the prince of the people that will come to destroy the sanctuary is apparently a reference to the Anti-Christ's breaking of a treaty with Israel in the midst of the 7 year tribulation period. The city and sanctuary (i.e., temple) were destroyed in 70 A.D. by Roman legions. However, the legions themselves were actually drawn from what is modern-day Turkey. So, is the coming prince "Roman" or Turkish? Based on Ezekiel 38, many would say "Turkish." But this is merely an example of the many layers to what is a very short prophecy.

Yellowstone Caldera Possess Little Risk

The Yellowstone Caldera has erupted as a super-volcano in the past. However, the Eruptions Blog at Wired Magazine explains that it is unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future:

Just because Yellowstone has produced three very large eruptions over the last 2.2 million years doesn’t mean that you should expect such an eruption. The caldera system has had plenty of smaller, dome-forming or explosive eruptions in the intervening years (and since the last caldera-forming eruption; see above), so in terms of the likeliest events, that is what to expect. In the paper by Guillarme Girard and John Stix in GSA Today, they suggest that the likeliest events to happen at Yellowstone in the near future are small, dome-forming eruptions or phreato-magmatic (water-influenced) explosions that follow pre-existing faults in the caldera, especially along the western rim. In fact, another study by Christensen and others (2007) showed that probabilistically, another caldera-forming eruption is the least likely scenario for future activity at Yellowstone. 

* * *

As for the future, it depends on what part of the caldera you are examining. Girard and Stix (2012) identify three zones at Yellowstone (see right) that could produce different potential eruptions: (1) fault-associated zones where voluminous rhyolite eruptions could occur – this is the most likely location for renewed activity; (2) a zone between Norris Geyser Basin and Mammoth where phreatic or phreatomagmatic (water-driven) eruptions could occur and (3) a small fault zone on the east side of the caldera were basaltic eruptions could occur. All of these potential eruptive types present hazards to the general public, varying from significant ash fall and pyroclastic flows that could reach the neighboring area to localized hydrothermal explosions. However, none of these are the “endtimes” scenarios that jump to everyone’s mind the minute Yellowstone has another one of its many earthquake swarms or caldera floor inflation events.

Rural vs. Suburban/Urban Retreat

FerFal weighs in again on this issue:

Fiction survival literature would have you believe that a house in a rural setting is the best option. Stay as far from rioting cities as you can, avoid criminals by living far away. This is repeated over and over until people take it for a fact, but ironically the truth is that living in such conditions is possible only in very safe, functioning societies. The further away and more isolated you are, the more vulnerable you are. With higher gas prices commuting back and forth or driving into town puts a dent into your finances. As the system and infrastructure starts failing, roads, reliable power and proper medical care becomes unreliable the further away you are.

After a decade of studying different crisis and disaster scenarios in different countries all over the world I believe that the idea of retreating to rural areas as a way of rationally preparing for hard times has no foundation on empirical facts but is instead rooted on American survival fantasy concepts. In what seems to be a vicious circle, people keep regurgitating what others have said and take it for a fact rather than checking how things actually turn out when serious social crisis have occurred. You only have to study South Africa’s recent history, most third world countries or the post communism western union nations to understand that what is taken as a fact in the American survival culture isn’t quite so. Keeping it short, if you live well today in an isolated homestead without 24hs security, its precisely because society has not collapsed. You wont be able to do so afterwards.

Because of this, a house in a walled gated community is highly desirable and it will be even more so after a serious crisis or collapse. In most Latin American countries, gated communities such as those are the only way in which you can live with a degree of peace of mind while you sleep. Your two properties are basically giving you those two options.  

As crime gets worse in USA, demand for such properties will go up. With a gated community you have options such as all neighbors paying more so as to have added security.

Municipal Pensions--the Next Big Crises

Yesterday, I noted an article from the Atlantic about the coming economic crises in Japan. Today, I want to mention this article about the pension crises for local governments.

But there are other policies that have a lasting and devastating impact on the health of cities. That’s currently on sad display as municipalities try to deal with the ticking time bomb of public employee pensions.

State government pensions have dominated the headlines, beginning, as ever, with California. Less well known is the plight of local governments, struggling with the very same problem. There are 220 state pension plans but nearly 3,200 locally administered across the nation, wreaking havoc on municipal budgets already in tatters.

Like many urban renewal plans, generous pensions for a range of city employees were established with the best of intentions, in the context of another era. Awarding pensions – long since been phased out in the private sector and replaced with individual retirement accounts to which employers often contribute over the course of one’s career – was seen as a way of rewarding public service, particularly for salaries that were not competitive with the private sector.

* * *

Municipalities have an even harder time covering monthly pension obligations; most depend primarily on property tax revenue, along with dwindling state aid and limited other tax revenues. And then there is the ongoing post-2008 public finance crisis. Cities are struggling to pay for other things; many have drastically cut back services, from police patrols to keeping streetlights lit. They have laid off current employees as stimulus funding has run out. Some have declared bankruptcy.

The really bad news is in the future, however. Researchers have estimated that the aggregate unfunded liabilities of locally administered pension plans tops $574 billion. In what amounts to some scary reading in the world of public finance, Tracy Gordon and Ilana Fischer at the Brookings Institution and Heather M. Rose at the University of California, Davis, have detailed this unfolding story in a recently published paper, summarized as well by Gordon and Richard F. Dye of the University of Illinois at Chicago in the current issue of Land Lines. The conclusion is that local governments have not set aside enough funds for pension liabilities, and are borrowing heavily and shifting the burden to future taxpayers. On average, pensions consume nearly 20 percent of municipal budgets. But if trends continue, over half of every dollar in tax revenue would go to pensions, and by some estimates in some cases would suck up 75 percent of all tax revenue.

The bottom line of all of this is that governments, the world over, are finally running out of other people's money. Traditionally, during the little time most people had between when poor health forced them to stop working and when they died, "retirees" were supported by close family members--generally their children. Planning for retirement was necessarily an endeavor to have enough children.

The rise of public and private pensions upended this traditional arrangement, creating the typical freeloader problem. Since someone else's children were going to be subsidizing the system, there is a reduced incentive to expend the time, effort, and money to have enough of your own children. Now, however, the ratio of workers to retirees is declining. This is exacerbated in poorly run cities and states because they have driven out their tax base (Detroit comes to mind). So, there is just not enough other people's money to keep the pension ponzi scheme going. While the authors suggest that cities have to honor the pension agreements, I suspect that there will come a time when people rebel against having to pay taxes to a government from which they obtain no benefit. And the people that lose their pensions won't be happy either.

Our Entitlement Society

The difference between the real poor and the "poor" in modern America. From PJ Media:

In today’s (North) America, there is little financial incentive to better oneself anyway, thanks to “entitlements” that are (involuntarily) paid for by harder-working, more responsible citizens.

Behold: according to the graph above, a “a one-parent family of three making $14,500 a year (minimum wage) has more disposable income than a family making $60,000 a year.”

Using Tracers

Most anyone with any knowledge of military weapons or history is familiar with the use of a tracer ammunition to aim (or correct the aim) of an automatic weapon. As the Wikipedia article cited above notes:

When used, tracers are usually loaded as every fifth round in machine gun belts, referred to as four-to-one tracer. Platoon and squad leaders will sometimes load their magazines entirely with tracers to mark targets for their soldiers to fire on. Tracers are also sometimes placed two or three rounds from the bottom of magazines to alert the shooter that their weapon is almost empty.

An automatic, belt-fed, weapon is probably beyond the budget of most preppers (besides the lengthy and annoying process of obtaining government approval), so using tracers for aiming purposes is probably a moot issue. The use of tracers to indicate a reload is not.

Knowing when to perform a tactical reload is not difficult with a 1911 pistol--when you are limited to 7 or 8 round magazines, you will want to swap out magazines after a few rounds. It becomes harder to estimate when to make a tactical reload with higher capacity magazines; and, I would suggest, almost impossible once you get to 20, 30 or 40 round rifle magazines, at least without a great deal of experience. Meaning that it is more likely for you to empty your magazine before you realize it--maybe when you need a "bang" rather than a "click" on an empty chamber.

At the same time, it is my experience that it takes longer to swap magazines in a rifle versus a handgun. And, if you run the magazine empty and you are using a weapon without a bolt hold open (such as an AK or HK 91), you then have to cock the weapon (taking more time) before firing again.

Tracers can assist. A tracer loaded to fire just before the last round will alert you to make a magazine change before you run out of ammo, while allowing you to reload on a loaded chamber--no need to cock the weapon after the reload. A tracer loaded to fire 3 to 5 rounds before the last round will alert you when you are getting low enough to warrant a tactical reload.

With a ratio of only one or two tracers per magazine, you should not need much, but it certainly would be worth putting away a box or two.

Fed Funding Deficit

From CNBC:

The latest round of extraordinary Federal Reserve stimulus is risky and leaves little room to maneuver should another crisis hit, economist Lawrence Lindsey told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. Lindsey said that with the Fed purchasing at least $40 billion a month in mortgage debt through QE3, “they are buying the entire deficit.”

* * *

“The Fed, maybe because it can't do otherwise, has told the Congress: 'We're going to buy your bonds no matter what,'” Lindsey said. “I think that's keeping the pressure off the president, off the Congress.”

The effective of QE3 on interest rates may also keep Congress from reining in borrowing.

“If the (Fed) chairman’s estimates of the effectiveness of QE3 on interest rates come true, we’re going to be down to an average cost of borrowing for the government of 0.6 of a percentage point,” Lindsey said. “Why would any Congress not borrow and spend if they could borrow at 60 basis points?”

Threat of Secession in Spain

The Financial Times reports:

Spain has entered a constitutional crisis. The decision of Catalonia’s nationalist government to call a snap election in November – which in practice will amount to a referendum on independence – has opened the way to Catalan secession. That decision, in turn, may give a lift to Basque separatists, now running neck and neck with mainstream nationalists in regional government elections due next month, after winning the largest number of Basque Country seats last year in local and general elections.

* * *

A majority of Catalans feels Madrid takes too much of local income to redistribute elsewhere. The clamour for independence has become mainstream. Sentiment turned when the constitutional court in Madrid – acting on a petition from Mr Rajoy’s PP – struck down democratically approved enhancements to Catalan home rule. This is not just about money. But austerity is politically toxic and intrinsically centrifugal.

Read the whole thing.

Rachel Carson, an Anti-Christ and Mass Murderer

From Reason magazine:

This week Silent Spring will turn 50.

Rachel Carson’s jeremiad against pesticides is credited by many as launching the modern environmentalist movement, and the author, who died in 1964, is being widely lauded for her efforts. "She was the very first person to knock some of the shine off of modernity," says environmentalist Bill McKibben in a New York Times Magazine article from this past Sunday.

* * *

In Silent Spring, Carson crafted a passionate denunciation of modern technology that drives environmentalist ideology today. At its heart is this belief: Nature is beneficent, stable, and even a source of moral good; humanity is arrogant, heedless, and often the source of moral evil. Rachel Carson, more than any other person, is responsible for the politicized science that afflicts our public policy debates today.

 After noting the poor science underlying Carson's work, the author goes on to note:

The first notable triumph of environmentalism occurred in 1972. Ten years after Silent Spring, William Ruckelshaus, Administrator of the barely two year-old Environmental Protection Agency, banned DDT, overruling an administrative law judge's fact finding after months of scientific testimony that "DDT is not a safety hazard to man when used as directed" and that its benefits outweighed its costs. As part of the justification, Ruckelshaus noted in his decision, "Public concern over the widespread use of pesticides was stirred by Rachel Carson’s book, Silent Spring."

* * *

Carson described the choice humanity faced as a fork in the road to the future. "The road we have long been traveling is deceptively easy, a smooth superhighway on which we progress at great speed, but at its end lies disaster," she declared. "The other fork of the road – the one 'less traveled by' – offers our last, our only chance to reach a destination that assures the preservation of our earth." This kind of apocalyptic rhetoric is now standard in today's policy debates. In any case, the opposition to Silent Spring arose not just because Carson was attacking the self-interests of certain corporations (which she certainly was), but also because it was clear that her larger concern was to rein in technological progress and the economic growth it fuels.

Through Silent Spring, Carson provided those who are alienated by modern technological progress with a model of how to wield ostensibly scientific arguments on behalf of policies and results that they prefer for other reasons. ...

... As trust in other sources of authority – politicians, preachers, business leaders – has withered over the past 50 years, policy partisans are increasingly seeking to cloak their arguments in the mantle of objective science. However, the Yale researchers find that greater scientific literacy actually produces greater political polarization. As Kahan and his fellow researchers report, "For ordinary citizens, the reward for acquiring greater scientific knowledge and more reliable technical-reasoning capacities is a greater facility to discover and use—or explain away—evidence relating to their groups’ positions." In other words, in policy debates scientific claims are used to vindicate partisan values, not to reach to an agreement about what is actually the case. This sort of motivated reasoning applies to partisans of the political left and right, who both learned it from Rachel Carson.

Although only tangentially discussed in the article is the important point that Carson ascribed "morality" to something inherently "amoral"--nature itself. (Obviously, Carson had never actually had to live under primitive conditions, or she would not have viewed nature as anything other than hostile and cruel). She essentially created a modern "mother nature" competitor to our affections and worship. She was an anti-Christ.

Update: More from Robert Zubrin about Carson, the mass-murderer (h/t Instapundit). After discussing the history of DDT, and Carson's falsifications and lies about it, he writes:

Initially, the ban [on DDT] only affected the United States. But the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) soon adopted strict environmental regulations that effectively prohibited it from funding international projects that used DDT.[23] Around the globe, Third World governments were told that if they wanted USAID or other foreign aid money to play with, they needed to stop using the most effective weapon against malaria.[24] Given the corrupt nature of many of the recipient regimes, it is not surprising that many chose lucre over life. And even for those that did not, the halting of American DDT exports (since U.S. producers slowed and then stopped manufacturing it) made DDT much more expensive, and thus effectively unavailable for poor countries in desperate need of the substance.[25] As a result, insect-borne diseases returned to the tropics with a vengeance. By some estimates, the death toll in Africa alone from unnecessary malaria resulting from the restrictions on DDT has exceeded 100 million people.[26]

* * *

While critics of Silent Spring have tended to focus on the one-sidedness of Rachel Carson’s case or on those of her claims that have not held up over time, the fraudulence of Silent Spring goes beyond mere cherry-picking or discredited data: Carson abused, twisted, and distorted many of the studies that she cited, in a brazen act of scientific dishonesty.[27] So the real tragic irony of the millions of deaths to malaria in the past several decades is that the three central anti-DDT claims made by Carson and other activists are all false.

Zubrin goes on to discuss the specifics lies Carson made. He concludes:

For the record, 1979 [when life in oceans was to have become extinct due to DTT] has come and gone, and life in the world’s oceans has continued to flourish gloriously. But, as a result of the mendacity and actions of Carson, Ruckelshaus, Wurster, Ehrlich, and their allies, DDT has been banned, and hundreds of millions of people who might have lived to enjoy those oceans, to sail on them, fish in them, surf in them, or swim in them, to play on their beaches or write poems about their sunsets, are dead.

In short, Carson (and her ilk) lied and, thereby, caused the deaths of hundreds of millions of people, in order to gain fame, power and fortune. Surely she needs to be included with the likes of Hitler, Stalin, Mao, and the other great butchers of history.

Understanding the China-Japan Island Conflict

Stratfor has an analysis of the China-Japan island conflict and its history.

For decades, Tokyo and Beijing generally abided by a tacit agreement to keep the islands dispute quiet. Japan agreed not to carry out any new construction or let anyone land on the islands; China agreed to delay assertion of any claim to the islands and not let the dispute interfere with trade and political relations. Although flare-ups occurred, usually triggered by some altercation between the Japanese coast guard and Chinese fishing vessels or by nationalist Japanese or Chinese activists trying to land on the islands, the lingering territorial dispute played only a minor role in bilateral relations.

However, Ishihara's plans for the Tokyo municipal government to take over the islands and eventually build security outposts there forced the Japanese government's hand. Facing domestic political pressure to secure Japan's claim to the islands, the government determined that the "nationalization" of the islands was the least contentious option. By keeping control over construction and landings, the central government would be able to keep up its side of the tacit agreement with China on managing the islands.

China saw Japan's proposed nationalization as an opportunity to exploit. Even as Japan was debating what action to take, China began stirring up anti-Japanese sentiment and Beijing tacitly backed the move by a group of Hong Kong activists in August to sail to and land on the disputed islands. At the same time, Beijing prevented a Chinese-based fishing vessel from attempting the same thing, using Hong Kong's semi-autonomous status as a way to distance itself from the action and retain greater flexibility in dealing with Japan.

As expected, the Japanese coast guard arrested the Hong Kong activists and impounded their ship, but Tokyo also swiftly released them to avoid escalating tensions. Less than a month later, after Japan's final decision to purchase the islands from their private Japanese owner, anti-Japanese protests swept China, in many places devolving into riots and vandalism targeting Japanese products and companies. Although many of these protests were stage-managed by the government, the Chinese began to clamp down when some demonstrations got out of control. While still exploiting the anti-Japanese rhetoric, Chinese state-run media outlets have highlighted local governments' efforts to identify and punish protesters who turned violent and warn that nationalist pride is no excuse for destructive behavior.

Presently, both China and Japan are working to keep the dispute within manageable parameters after a month of heightened tensions.

* * *

China is struggling with the new role of the military in its foreign relations, while Japan is seeing a slow re-emergence of the military as a tool of its foreign relations. China's two-decade-plus surge in economic growth is reaching its logical limit, yet given the sheer size of China's population and its lack of progress switching to a more consumption-based economy, Beijing still has a long way to go before it achieves any sort of equitable distribution of resources and benefits. This leaves China's leaders facing rising social tensions with fewer new resources at their disposal. Japan, after two decades of society effectively agreeing to preserve social stability at the cost of economic restructuring and upheaval, is now reaching the limits of its patience with a bureaucratic system that is best known for its inertia.

Both countries are seeing a rise in the acceptability of nationalism, both are envisioning an increasingly active role for their militaries, and both occupy the same strategic space. With Washington increasing its focus on the Asia-Pacific region, Beijing is worried that a resurgent Japan could assist the United States on constraining China in an echo of the Cold War containment strategy.

We are now seeing the early stage of another shift in Asian power. It is perhaps no coincidence that the 1972 re-establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan followed U.S. President Richard Nixon's historic visit to China. The Senkaku/Diaoyu islands were not even an issue at the time, since they were still under U.S. administration. Japan's defense was largely subsumed by the United States, and Japan had long ago traded away its military rights for easy access to U.S. markets and U.S. protection. The shift in U.S.-China relations opened the way for the rapid development of China-Japan relations.

The United States' underlying interest is maintaining a perpetual balance between Asia's two key powers so neither is able to challenging Washington's own primacy in the Pacific. During World War II, this led the United States to lend support to China in its struggle against imperial Japan. The United States' current role backing a Japanese military resurgence against China's growing power falls along the same line. As China lurches into a new economic cycle, one that will very likely force deep shifts in the country's internal political economy, it is not hard to imagine China and Japan's underlying geopolitical balance shifting again. And when that happens, so too could the role of the United States.

Taiwan and Japan Duel...

... using water cannons.

Two coastguard patrol boats blasted each other with water cannon as tensions escalated over the ownership of a tiny group of rocky islands in the South China Sea.

The Japanese vessel opened fire on its Taiwanese rival as the ship encroached on the disputed land - which is also claimed by China - earlier today.

In a bid to repel the approaching flotilla, they opened fire with their powerful water arsenal. But the Taiwanese boats fired back with their own spray guns sparking a ferocious water fight.

In the end, the might of Japan proved too strong for their Taiwanese counterparts, who eventually turned on their tails and headed home.

It was the latest confrontation over the uninhabited islands Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China.

China, Japan and Taiwan all claim the islands, but they are administered by Tokyo, since the Japanese government bought them from private owners two weeks ago.

Good thing they didn't have super-soakers, or they may have attempted a boarding action.

Review of the PTR91GI

Warrior Talk News has a review of the PTR91GI (basically, PTR's version of the HK91, which is a semi-auto only version of the HK G-3). I do have a couple of comments.

First, without the paddle-mag release, magazine changes are much slower with HK 91/93 style rifles than many other battle-rifles--the magazine release button is on the right side of the rifle, requiring you to use your shooting hand to operate the release. The paddle-mag release, on the other hand, hangs down just behind the magazine, allowing you to quickly make a magazine change in one fluid motion with your off hand. If you are just wanting a rifle that is fun to shoot at the range, it's not necessary. But otherwise, the paddle-mag release needs to be added to make it an effective combat or self-defense tool.

Second, notwithstanding what the author feels, I think the rear sights on an HK are not all that great. For one thing, the sights are too close to the eye to use the 100m sight. For those unfamiliar with the rifle, the rear sight is a canted drum that can be rotated to provide sights for 100, 200, 300, and 400 meters, respectively; the 100 meter sight is an open sight--basically an open notch sight similar to what you would find on a typical level action or .22 rifle--while the others are peep sights. While the distance from the eye to the rear sight is fine for the peep sights, the 100-meter open rear sight is so close that it blurs out and is essentially useless except for the roughest alignment. There is a reason that most rifles using those types of notch- or V-sights place the rear sight ahead of the receiver.... Frankly, HK would have been better off using a peep or ghost ring sight similar to what was on the FAL or the U.S. rifles. Unfortunately, there is not much you can do to improve the rear sight. I would suggest leaving it on the 200m peep for most of your shooting and, if you can, mount a red-dot or telescopic sight.

The Meaning of the Black Muslim Flag

I was reading a story on Fox News today about Egyptian President Morsi and read something disturbing in its ignorance or its intent to deceive readers. The story, which is from the Associated Press, states:

In the interview, Morsi dismissed criticism that he responded too slowly when protesters managed to scale the walls of the heavily fortified U.S. Embassy in Cairo on Sept. 11. The demonstrators replaced the American flag with a banner carrying the Islamic declaration of faith.  

CBS reported at the time the following:

Dozens of protesters scaled the embassy walls, went into the courtyard and took down the flag from a pole. They brought it back to the crowd outside, which tried to burn it, but failing that, tore it apart. The protesters on the wall then raised on the flagpole a black flag with the Muslim declaration of faith on it, "There is no god but God [sic] and Muhammad is his prophet."

Here's a photo:

The black flag has special significance in Islam. As Joel Richardson explains in his book, Antichrist: Islam's Awaited Messiah:

In Islam there are two flags. One is white and one is black. Written across both flags in Arabic are the words, "There is no God but Allah and Muhammad is his Messenger." The white flag is called Al-Liwaa and serves as the sign for the leader of the Muslim army and is the flag of the Islamic State. The black flag is called Ar-Raya and is used by the Muslim army. It is also called the flag of jihad, and is carried into battle. One flag is governmental and the other is a military flag. 

 * * * 

Islamic tradition pictures the Mahdi [the Islamic messiah] as joining with teh army of Muslim warriors carrying black flags. The Madhi will then lead this army to Israel and re-conquer it for Islam. The Jews will be slaughtered until very few remain and Jerusalem will become the location of the Mahdi's rule over the Earth.

(pp. 45-46).

"A Remarkable Vision from John Taylor"

For my LDS readers, I wanted to share a vision by John Taylor, shortly after Brigham Young's death, which was recorded by Wilford Woodruff in his journal. This is from the Yorgasons' book, Spiritual Survival in the Last Days, starting at p. 44 (they kept the original spelling and punctuation, and so have I; the brackets were presumably added by the Yorgasons):

I [ ] went to bed at my usual hour half past nine o'clock. I had been reading the Revelations in the French language. My mind was Calm, more so than usual if possible to so. I Composed myself for sleep but Could not sleep. I felt a strange stupor Come over me and apparently became partially unconscious. Still I was not asleep, nor awake With strange far away dreamy feelings.

The first I recognized was that I was in the Tabernacle at Ogden sitting on the back seat in the Corner for fear they would Call upon me to Preach, which after singing the second time, they did, by Calling me to the Stand.

I arose to speak and said I did not Know that I had any thing special to say Except to bear my Testimony to the Truth of the Latter Day work when all at once it seemed as though I was lifted out of myself, and I said "Yes, I have sumthing to say, it is this--some of my brethren present have been asking me what is Coming to pass, what is the wind blowing up. I will answer you right here what is Coming to pass shortly.

I was immediately in Salt Lake City wandering about the streets in all parts of the City on ON the door of every house I found a badge of mourning, and I Could not find a house but what was in mourning. I passed by my own house and saw the same sign there, an d asked, "Is that me that is dead?" Sumthing gave me answer, "No, you [shall] live through it all."

It seemed strange to me that I saw no person [on] the street in my wandering about through the City. They seemed to be in their houses with their Sick and Dead. I saw no funeral procession, or any thing of that kind, but the City looked very Still and quiet as though the people were praying and had Controll of the disease what ever it was.

I then looked in all directions over the Territory, East west North and South, and I found the same mourning in every place throughout the Land. The next I knew I was Just this side of Omaha. It seemed as though I was above, the Earth, looking down to it as I passed along on my way East and I saw the roads full of people, principally women, with just what they Could Carry in bundles on their backs traveling to the mountains on foot. And I wondered how they Could get there, with nothing but a small pack upon their backs. It was remarkable to me that there were so few men among them. It did not seem as though the Cars were running. The rails looked rusty, and the road abandoned, And I have no conception how I traveled myself.

As I looked down upon the people I Continued Eastward through Omaha and Council Bluffs which were full of disease, and women every whare. The States of Missouri and Illinois were in turmoil and Strife, Men killing each other, and women joining in the fight, family against family Cutting each other to pieces in the most horrid manner.

The next I saw was Washington, and I found the City a desolation. The White House Empty, the Halls of Congress the same Everything in ruins. The people seemed to have fled from the City and left it to take Care of itself.

I was next in the City of Baltimore and in the square where the Monument of 1812 Stands, in front of St Charles and other Hotels I saw the Dead piled up so high as to fill the square. I saw Mothers Cut the throats of their own Children for the sake of their blood, which they drank from their veins, to quench their thirst and then lie down and die. The waters of the Chesapeake and of the City were so stagnant and such a stench arose from them on account of the putrefaction of Dead bodies that the very smell Caused Death and that was singular again I saw no men except they were dead, lying in the streets, and vary few women, and they were Crazy mad, and in a dying Condition. Every whare I went I beheld the same all over the City, And it was horrible, beyond description to look at.

I thought this must be the End. But No I was seemingly in Philadelphia, and there every thing was Still. No living soul was to be seen to greet me, and it seemed as though the whole City was without an inhabitant. In arch and Chestnut Street and in fact Every whare I went the putrefaction of the Dead bodies Caused such a stench that it was Impossible for any Creature to Exhist alive, nor did I see any living thing in the city.

I next found myself in Broad way New York and here it seemed the people had done their best to overcome the disease. But in wandering down Broadway I saw the bodies of Beautiful women lying stone dead, and others in a dying Condition on the side walk. I saw men Crawl out of the Cellars and rob the dead bodies of the valuables they had on and before they Could return to their coverts in the cellars they themselves would roll over a time or two and die in agony. On some of the back streets I saw Mothers kill their own Children and Eat raw flesh and then in a few minutes die themselves. Wharever I went I saw the same scenes of Horror and Desolation rapine and Death. No Horses or Carriages, No busses or Street Cars, but Death and Destruction every whare.

I then went to the Grand Central Park and looking back I saw a fire Start and just at that moment a might East wind sprang up and Carried the flames west over the City, and it burned untill there was not a single building left Standing whole Even down to the wharfs. And the shipping all seemed to be burned and swallowed up in the Common destruction and left Nothing but a Desolation whare the great City was a short time before. The Stench from the bodies that were burning was so great that it Carried a great distance across the Hudson River and bay, and thus spread disease and death whareever the flames penetrated. I Cannot paint in words the Horror that seemed to Encompass me around. It was beyond description or thought of man to Conceive.

I supposed this was the End but I was here given to understand, that the same horror was being enacted all of the Country, North South East and West, that few were left alive. Still there were some.

Immediately after I seemed to be standing on the west bank of the Missouri River opposite the City of Independence but I saw no City. I saw the whole States of Missouri & Illinois and part of Iowa were a Complete wilderness with no living human being in them. I then saw a short distance from the river Twelve men dressed in the robes of the Temple Standing in a square or nearly so. I understood it represented the Twelve gates of the New Jerusalem, and they were with hands uplifted Consecrating the ground and laying the Corner Stones. I saw myriads of Angels hovering over them and around about them and also an immens pillar of a Cloud over them and I heard the singing of the most beautif[ul] music the words "Now is established the Kingdom of our God and His Christ, and He shall reign forever and Ever, and the Kingdom shall never be Thrown down for the Saints have overcome." And I saw people Coming from the River and different places a long way off to help build the Temple, and it seemed that the Hosts of the angels also helped to get the material to build the Temple. And I saw some Come who wore their Temple ... rob[e]s to help build the Temple and the City and all the time I saw the great pillar of Cloud hovering over the place.

Instantly I found I was in the Tabernacle at Ogden yet I Could see the building going on and got quite animated in Calling to the people in the Tabernacle to listen to the beautiful music that the Angels were Making. I Called to them to look at the Angels as the House seemed to be full of them and they were saying the same words that I heard Before "Now is the Kingdom of our God Esstablished forever & Ever." And then a voice said "Now shall Come to pass that which was spoken by Isaiah the Prophet "that seven women shall take hold of one man, saying &c (Isaiah 4:1). ["And in that day seven women shall take hold of one man, saying, We will eat our own bread, and wear our own apparel: only let us be called by thy name, to take away our reproach."]

At this time I seemed to Stagger back from the pulpit & F D Richards and some one els Caught me and prevented me from falling when I requested Brother Richards to apologize to the audience for me because I stoped so adruptly and tell them I had not feinted but was exhausted. I rolled over in my bed and heard the City Hall Clock Strike Twelve.

The citation given by the Yorgasons is: Wilford Woodruff's Journal, 1833-1898, ed. Scott G. Kenney, 9 vols [Midvale UT: Signature Books], 7:419-23. Also in Unpublished Revelations of the Prophets and Presidents of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, vol. 1, comp. Fred C. Collier [Salt Lake City: Collier's Publishing Co., 1979], pp. 119-23.

The Problems Israel Would Face If Attacking Iran

Here are some of the problems facing the Israelis if they attempt to attack Iranian nuclear facilities by air:

According to Joffe, the US air force ordered MOPs [massive bunker busting bombs] when the Fordo facility was uncovered, the first were delivered last fall. Israel does not have MOPs or American B2 bombers, which would be used to transport the bombs if the Americans attack. Yet Fordo is only one of the problems Israel is facing.

Another difficulty in a military strike against Iran is the distance. Out of the eight central air force targets in the Islamic Republic, only the Arak facility is reachable without refueling.

"An F-16I 'Storm' flies very high in very thin air, with extra fuel tanks it can cover 1500 km. Yet if it flies low to evade radar in Jordan, Iraq and Iran, its combat radius shrinks by half. The F-15I 'Thunder', the IAF’s mightiest jet probably has similar specs: 1000 to 1500 kilometers.

Joffe goes on to explain in detail why it just is not enough: "The pilots would have to turn back about a hundred kilometers short of the enrichment sites at Fordo and Natanz. If they were to fly on anyway, they would have to refill their tanks over territory that’s not exactly friendly: Jordan and Iraq using the direct route; or, on the northern variant, along the Syrian-Turkish border.

"They could fly undetected only over the sea, around the Arabian Peninsula. That would mean 5000 kilometers: an absurd venture…Geography, then, remains Israel’s foremost enemy, one that can be overcome only by midair refueling."

Yet refueling might be Israel's main problem, says Joffe: "Israel has only five tanker jets modified Boeing 707s. Time for some mental math: The IAF has 100 Storms and 25 Thunders. If they’re all deployed at once, they would have to be refueled twice, on each leg of the mission. 125 times two equals 250 – with a handful of tankers?

"Then with half the fleet, perhaps? That wouldn’t change much either, because bombers have to arm themselves against fighters and ground-to-air missiles. The Iranians’ 50-odd fighters (F-14s, Mirages and MiG-29s) may be old to obsolete, but still have to be reckoned with."

In line with American assessments claiming that Israel cannot destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities, and would only be able to delay Tehran's efforts to achieve nuclear capability, Joffe believes that the IDF would choose to hit a few of targets rather than all eight of them.

He concludes that the air force might try to take out key components in the nuclear supplies chain by destroying the enrichment facility at Natanz, which is more vulnerable than Fordo, as well as the uranium converter facility at Isfahan.

Joffe explains that without the possibility of converting uranium to gas, Iran would be forced to halt enrichment activities.

The Zombie Song

Sometimes, you gotta find something that makes you laugh. So, for the sake of laughter, here is a humorous zombie apocalypse song:

Middle East War is the Best Option

David Goldman (aka Spengler), has another insightful post at the Asia Times about the bigger picture in the Middle-East. He writes:

If a contrarian thought might be permitted, consider the possibility that all-out regional war is the optimal outcome for American interests. An Israeli strike on Iran that achieved even limited success - a two-year delay in Iran's nuclear weapons development - would arrest America's precipitous decline as a superpower.

Absent an Israeli strike, America faces:

A nuclear-armed Iran; Iraq's continued drift towards alliance with Iran; An overtly hostile regime in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood government will lean on jihadist elements to divert attention from the country's economic collapse; An Egyptian war with Libya for oil and with Sudan for water; A radical Sunni regime controlling most of Syria, facing off an Iran-allied Alawistan ensconced in the coastal mountains; A de facto or de jure Muslim Brotherhood takeover of the Kingdom of Jordan; A campaign of subversion against the Saudi monarchy by Iran through Shi'ites in Eastern Province and by the Muslim Brotherhood internally; A weakened and perhaps imploding Turkey struggling with its Kurdish population and the emergence of Syrian Kurds as a wild card; A Taliban-dominated Afghanistan; and Radicalized Islamic regimes in Libya and Tunisia. Saudi Arabia is the biggest loser in the emerging Middle East configuration, and Russia is the biggest winner. Europe and Japan have concluded that America has abandoned its long-standing commitment to the security of energy supplies in the Persian Gulf by throwing the Saudi monarchy under the bus, and have quietly shifted their energy planning towards Russia. Little of this line of thinking will appear in the news media, but the reorientation towards Moscow is underway nonetheless. From Israel's vantage point, the way things are now headed is the worst-case scenario. The economic sanctions are a nuisance for Iran, but not a serious hindrance to its nuclear ambitions. When US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey intoned on August 30 that he "did not want to be complicit" in an Israeli strike on Iran, he was stating publicly what the Pentagon has signaled to Tehran for the past six months. The US wants no part of an Israeli strike. This remonstrance from the Pentagon, along with the State Department's refusal to identify a "red line" past which Iran would provoke American military action, amounts to a green light for Iran to build an atomic bomb, Israeli analysts believe. What if Israel were to strike Iran? From a technical standpoint, there is no question that Israel could severely damage the Iranian nuclear program. ....Israel has had 10 years to plan the operation, and it is a fair assumption that the Israeli Air Force can accomplish the mission. The deeper question is: what constitutes success? "When Israel bombed [Iraq's] Osiris [nuclear reactor in 1981]," said an Israeli who took part in the planning, "we expected a three-year setback of Iraq's nuclear program. It was delayed by 10 years. But that wasn't the most important thing. What was most important to us is the ripple effect through the region." The ripple effects are what America's foreign policy establishment fears the most. The vision shared by the George W Bush and Barack Obama administrations, albeit with some variation, of a Middle East dotted with democratic regimes friendly to the United States would pop like a soap-bubble. What ripples would ensue from a successful Israeli strike on Iran? Iran probably would attempt to block the Straits of Hormuz, the gateway for a fifth of the world's oil supply, and America would respond by destroying Iranian conventional military capabilities and infrastructure from the air. This would add to Tehran's humiliation, and strengthen the domestic opposition. Iran's influence in Iraq and Syria would diminish, although Iran's supporters in both countries probably would spill a great deal of blood in the short run. Hizbollah almost certainly would unleash its missile arsenal at Israel, inflicting a few hundred casualties by Israeli estimates. Israel would invade southern Lebanon and - unlike the 2006 war - fight without fear of Syrian intervention. In 2006, the Olmert government restricted the movements of the IDF out of fear that the Syrian Army would intervene. Syria's army is in no position to intervene today. There is a possibility, to be sure, that Syria would launch chemical and biological warheads against Israel, but if the Assad government employed weapons of mass destruction, Israel would respond with a nuclear bombardment. In this case deterrence is likely to be effective. Iran's influence in Lebanon would be drastically diminished. Stripped of support from its Iranian sponsor, the Alawite regime would fall, and Syria would become a Saudi-Turkish condominium. Ethnic butchery would go on for some time. Egypt would be cut off from financial support from the Gulf States as punishment for its opening to Iran. The domestic consequences for Egypt would be ugly. The country is almost out of money; some of its oil suppliers stopped deliveries last August, and Egypt's refineries lack funds to buy oil from the government.

And on that note, I will direct your attention to this article which notes that the Israeli military has held the largest snap drills in years:

The Israeli military on Wednesday conducted its largest snap drill in years as tensions with Iran over its nuclear program rise and civil war in neighboring Syria rages.

Military chief Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz ordered the exercise to test the competence and preparedness of several units in the armed forces, a military statement said. It called the drill in northern and central Israel "part of a routine inspection" that "does not indicate any changes" in the country's alert levels.

Tens of thousands of soldiers were mobilized for the exercise, including artillery and air force personnel, making the drill unique because of the number of soldiers and senior officers involved, several officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity, according to military regulations.

As part of the exercise, troops were dispatched by air from central part of the country to the Israeli-controlled part of the Golan Heights, captured from neighboring Syria in the 1967 Mideast war, the officials said. The drill ended with a live fire exercise in the Golan.

DHS Continues Preps for Civil War?

Infowars reports that the Department of Homeland Security has purchased another 200 million rounds of ammunition, in addition to the 1.2 billion it has purchased over the last 6 months. (By purchase, I mean placed orders; deliveries will take more time). What do they think they need that much ammo for? They are a federal law enforcement agency, not the Army.

According to the report, 176,000 rounds are for snipers (i.e., 168 grain .308 HPBT--the standard military load, by comparison, uses a 147 grain FMJ bullet). Granted, snipers shoot a lot in practice, but still....

China Hints at Economic Warfare Against Japan

The Telegraph reports on the latest escalation between China and Japan:

Jin Baisong from the Chinese Academy of International Trade – a branch of the commerce ministry – said China should use its power as Japan’s biggest creditor with $230bn (£141bn) of bonds to “impose sanctions on Japan in the most effective manner” and bring Tokyo’s festering fiscal crisis to a head.

Writing in the Communist Party newspaper China Daily, Mr Jin called on China to invoke the “security exception” rule under the World Trade Organisation to punish Japan, rejecting arguments that a trade war between the two Pacific giants would be mutually destructive.

Separately, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that China is drawing up plans to cut off Japan’s supplies of rare earth metals needed for hi-tech industry.

The warnings came as anti-Japanese protests spread to 85 cities across China, forcing Japanese companies to shutter factories and suspend operations.

Fitch Ratings threatened to downgrade a clutch of Japanese exporters if the clash drags on. It warned that Nissan is heavily at risk with 26pc of its global car sales in China, followed by Honda with 20pc. Sharp and Panasonic both have major exposure. Japan’s exports to China were $74bn in the first half of this year. Bilateral trade reached $345bn last year.

Mr Jin said China can afford to sacrifice its “low-value-added” exports to Japan at a small cost. By contrast, Japan relies on Chinese demand to keep its economy afloat and stave off “irreversible” decline.

“It’s clear that China can deal a heavy blow to the Japanese economy without hurting itself too much,” he said. It is unclear whether he was speaking with the full backing of the Politburo or whether sales of Japanese debt would do much damage. The Bank of Japan could counter the move with bond purchases. Any weakening of the yen would be welcome.

He adds:

China’s post-Maoist regime derives its legitimacy from nationalism, especially now that the boom is fading and China is losing some of its competitive edge.

The anti-Japanese fervour was systematically stoked by the “Patriotic Education Campaign” of Jiang Zemin in the 1990s to divert attention from party corruption and the growing gap between rich and poor.

But it is a double-edged sword for China’s leaders. “Given its potency, it is difficult to control. Nationalism can turn against the government, if it is perceived as doing too little,” he said.

Markets are already starting to price in an arms race in Asia. Shares of China’s North Navigation Control Technology, which makes missile systems, have jumped 30pc in recent days.

China is becoming self-sufficient in defence. It was the world’s biggest net importer of weapons six years ago. It fell to fourth place last year.

Japan is at the other extreme. An official report this year – “A Strategy for Survival” – said Japan’s spending on its “Self-Defence Force” had shrunk by 4pc in 10 years. It called for “urgent” action to rebuild the country’s military.

If there is any silver lining in an Asian arms race, it may at least soak up the region’s excess savings and pull the world out of semi-slump. But be careful what you wish for.

Two cultures on a demographic race to the bottom. Japan's economy has been moribund for two decades; China, economically, is positioned where Japan was in the late 80's, and may follow it. At that time, Japan was riding an economic wave, and a huge real estate bubble. And then it all went bust. However, I don't see China slipping into economic somnolence as peacefully as Japan.  

However, let's think where this may go if China decided to push hostilities with Japan. The biggest factor would be the American military. Obviously, the U.S. is not going to respond with nuclear weapons--no president would risk a nuclear attack against the U.S. mainland in order to protect another country. China, similarly, does not want to provoke the U.S. into a nuclear conflict. China would need to ensure that the U.S. would not intervene or, if it did so, that victory would be swift. I suspect that China would threaten U.S. troops in the Middle-East and Afghanistan, probably through a third party such as Pakistan and/or Iran, to keep them pinned down and the U.S. diverted, while it deals with "liberating" the contested Islands. China doesn't have to defeat Japan through an invasion--it simply has to humiliate Japan.

Naval Forces Gathering in Persian Gulf

From the Telegraph:

Cruisers, aircraft carriers and minesweepers from 25 nations are converging on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz in an unprecedented show of force as Israel and Iran move towards the brink of war.

Western leaders are convinced that Iran will retaliate to any attack by attempting to mine or blockade the shipping lane through which passes around 18 million barrels of oil every day, approximately 35 per cent of the world’s oil traded by sea.

A blockade would have a catastrophic effect on the fragile economies of Britain, Europe the United States and Japan, all of which rely heavily on oil and gas supplies from the Gulf.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most congested international waterways. It is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point and is bordered by the Iranian coast to the north and the Oman to the south.

In preparation for any pre-emptive or retaliatory action by Iran, warships from more than 25 countries, including the United States, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will today begin an annual 12-day exercise.

* * *

In the event of war, the main threat to the multi-national force will come from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps navy, which is expected to adopt an “access-denial” strategy in the wake of an attack, by directly targeting US warships, attacking merchant shipping and mining vital maritime chokepoints in the Persian Gulf.

Defence sources say that although Iran’s capability may not be technologically sophisticated, it could deliver a series of lethal blows against British and US ships using mini-subs, fast attack boats, mines and shore-based anti-ship missile batteries.

Next month, Iran will stage massive military manoeuvres of its own, to show that it is prepared to defend its nuclear installations against the threat of aerial bombardment.

The exercise is being showcased as the biggest air defence war game in the Islamic Republic’s history, and will be its most visible response yet to the prospect of an Israeli military strike.

Using surface-to-air missiles, unmanned drones and state-of-the-art radar, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and air force will combine to test the defences of 3,600 sensitive locations throughout the country, including oil refineries and uranium enrichment facilities.

Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya air defence base, told a conference this month that the manoeuvres would “identify vulnerabilities, try out new tactics and practise old ones”.

* * *

One defence source told The Sunday Telegraph last night: “If it came to war, there would be carnage. The Iranian casualties would be huge but they would be able to inflict severe blows against the US and British.

“The Iranian Republican Guard are well versed in asymmetrical warfare and would use swarm attacks to sink or seriously damage ships. This is a conflict nobody wants, but the rhetoric from Israel is unrelenting.”

"[T]he rhetoric from Israel"? They face an existential threat--I don't think it is rhetoric.

The Iranian exercises may provide an interesting window of opportunity--either during the confusion of the exercises (can Iran manage all of its aircraft?) or immediately afterward when its military crews are tired, and stores have been depleted.

Chinese General: Prepare for War

More saber rattling:

China’s most powerful military leader, in an unusual public statement, last week ordered military forces to prepare for combat, as Chinese warships deployed to waters near disputed islands and anti-Japan protests throughout the country turned violent.

Protests against the Japanese government’s purchase of three privately held islands in the Senkakus chain led to mass street protests, the burning of Japanese flags, and attacks on Japanese businesses and cars in several cities. Some carried signs that read “Kill all Japanese,” and “Fight to the Death” over disputed islands. One sign urged China to threaten a nuclear strike against Japan.

Gen. Xu Caihou, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, considered the most senior military political commissar, said Friday that military forces should be “prepared for any possible military combat,” state run Xinhua news agency reported.

Of course, Japan is not the Philippines, and probably won't be as easy to push around.

Conflict Between Japan and China?

Benjamin Franklin is believed to have said: "We must, indeed, all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately." This is very true for those nations that are asserting claims to portions of the South China Sea against the claims of China. From CNS News:

Exchanging warnings but avoiding confrontations thus far, Chinese and Japanese ships have come within less than half a nautical mile of each other in an ongoing dispute over the sovereignty of contested islands.

Amid deepening tensions in a long-running saga over the uninhabited islands, known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned Sunday about the possibility of war between the two Asian countries.

“What we don't want is to have any kind of provocative behavior on the part of China or anybody else result in conflict,” he told reporters accompanying him on a trip that includes stops in Japan, China and New Zealand.

“My purpose will be to urge that they engage in the effort by the Asian nations to try to work out a format for resolving these issues,” he added, referring to a code of conduct developed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in a bid to manage unconnected territorial disputes between China and ASEAN members in the South China Sea.

Asked again about the concerns, Panetta said he was worried that “when these countries engage in provocations of one kind or another over these various islands, that it raises the possibility that a misjudgment on one side or the other could result in violence and could result in conflict, and that conflict would then, you know, have the potential of expanding.”

Why Armaggedon?

Why is Armageddon--speaking broadly of the widespread destruction and death in the last days--necessary? Why would a loving and merciful God allow such pain, suffering and death?

God's purpose is to produce a people worthy and capable of having "the tabernacle of God ... with men, ... [so that] he will dwell with them, and they shall be his people, and God himself shall be with them, and be their God." Rev. 21:3. And, a people that are worthy of the power and responsibility of being "heirs of God, and joint-heirs with Christ." Romans 8:17. Obviously, this requires a people that are repentant and meek, and pure in heart. See, e.g., Matt. 5:8; Heb. 10:22; 3 Nephi 12:8; 1 Timothy 1:5.

However, we live in a period of great evil. "But as the days of Noe [i.e. Noah] were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be." Matt. 24:37. See also, generally, 2 Peter 3; Jude 1:14-25. What was it like in the days of Noah? In Genesis, it states that "the wickedness of man was great in the earth, and that every imagination of the thoughts of his heart was only evil continually." Gen. 6:5. And "[t]he earth also was corrupt before God, and the earth was filled with violence." Gen. 6:11. Just as in the days of Noah, wickedness will be so rampant that the only course available will be to destroy the wicked in order to save the good. Thus, the second coming of Christ is His opportunity to separate the "wheat" (i.e., the good) from the "tares" (i.e., the evil), and destroy the tares. See Matt. 13: 24-30. See also D&C 86; D&C 101:65 (providing further explanation of the parable of the wheat and tares).

This is not only wickedness in the sense that most people think of it--as specific sinful conduct--but also the philosophies and world views that underlie wickedness. President Ezra Taft Benson stated this about the coming conflict of the last days:

Momentum is gathering for another conflict--a repetition of the crisis of two hundred years ago. This collision of ideas is worldwide. Another monumental moment is soon to be born. The issue is the same that precipitated the great premortal conflict--will men be free to determine their own course of action or must they be coerced?

(quoted from Yorgason, Blain and Brenton Yorgason, Spiritual Survival in the Last Days (1990), p. 35). He is, of course, speaking of the great war in heaven where Satan was able to draw away 1/3 of the heavenly hosts to follow him. Satan's goal was to exalt himself above God and take the Father's glory as his own. To achieve his goal, he came up with a seemingly laudable plan to save every soul, by forcing everyone to be good; in contravention to Christ's plan that people be given free will to choose good or evil. Undoubtedly he convinced many of the Heavenly Hosts to try and support him by arguing that saving all souls, such that not one was lost, was worth the sacrifice of free agency.

In K. Eric Drexler's classic Engines of Creation, he discusses the concept of "memes," which he defines as "[a]n idea that, like a gene, can replicate and evolve. Examples of memes (and meme systems) include political theories, proselytizing religions, and the idea of memes itself." Engines of Creation (1986), p. 288. See also Id. at 35 ("examples of memes are tunes, ideas, catch-phrases, clothes fashions, ways of making pots or of building arches"). That is, "ideas mutate, replicate, and compete. Ideas evolve." Id. at 35. He further explains:

Memes replicate because people both learn and teach. They vary because people create the new and misunderstand the old. They are selected (in part) because people don't believe or repeat everything they hear. As test tube RNA molecules compete for scarce copying machines and subunits, so memes must compete for a scarce resource--human attention and effort. Since memes shape behavior, their success of failure is a deadly serious matter.

Id. Unfortunately, "[e]xperience shows that ideas evolved to be successful replicators need have little to do with the truth." Id. at 37. The wicked are repositories and carriers of these harmful memes.

Evil memes ultimately kill their hosts because it causes them to "call evil good, and good evil" and "put darkness for light, and light for darkness" and "bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter." Isaiah 5:20. That is, they reject good memes in favor of evil memes. Evil memes lead to evil practices which lead to evil consequences. What makes this age different, in my view, is that not only are evil memes spread more rapidly and thoroughly by means of mass media, but they have become institutionalized in our education systems, bureaucracies, and laws. Thus,the second coming will not only see the destruction of the wicked, but the end of all nations. See Jer. 30:11; D&C 87:6.

The only way to destroy the evil memes is to expunge them. For the righteous, the trials of the second coming will allow the Lord to chasten his people, and permit them to repent and put aside the evil memes they may hold. For the wicked who refuse to repent, these same events will bring utter ruin and destruction. "Although the righteous have no guarantee of escape [from the trials and tribulations of the last days], the wicked have no hope." (Gerald N. Lund, The Coming of the Lord (1971), p. 80).

Netanyahu Suggests Israel May Go It Alone Against Iran

We inch ever closer to a general Middle-Eastern conflict--perhaps involving nuclear weapons--because of the gross policy mistakes of the current administration in supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremists, while denigrating our allies.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insinuated in an interview published Friday that Israel cannot entirely rely on the U.S. to act against Iran's suspect nuclear program, a sign that the Israeli leader is not backing down from the sharp rhetoric that strained relations this week with the Obama administration.

Netanyahu has been arguing in recent weeks that Iran is getting close to acquiring nuclear weapons capability, a claim Iran denies. He has been pushing the U.S. to commit to the circumstances under which the U.S. would lead a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders have repeatedly hinted that if the United States does not attack, Israel will.

"I hear those who say we should wait until the last minute. But what if the U.S. doesn't act? It's a question that must be asked," Netanyahu told Israel Hayom, in an interview marking the Jewish New Year.

. . . The Obama administration also suspects Tehran is seeks to become a nuclear power and says it is committed to preventing a nuclear Iran, but insists more efforts must be made before resorting to military action. Washington is refusing to be specific about what exactly would necessitate a strike on Iran and has rejected an Israeli demand for "red lines" that cannot be crossed.

Earlier this week Netanyahu issued a rebuke of the U.S. cautious stance, perceived as an indirect swipe at the Obama administration. He said that "those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran don't have a moral right to place a red light before Israel."

Two-Faced Muslim Brotherhood

Apparently the Muslim Brotherhood isn't much brainier than Obama and Biden when it comes to public communication. From Newser:

The US embassy in Cairo caught the ruling Muslim Brotherhood being two-faced as the protests were under way earlier this week, reports the Hill. The Egypt group's Arabic feed praised the protests, while its American feed expressed support for American staffers:  

--Brotherhood's tweet in Arabic: "Egyptians rise to defend the prophet."

--Brotherhood's tweet in English: "We r relieved none of @USEmbassyCairo staff were harmed & hope US-Eg relations will sustain turbulence of Tuesday's events"

--US response to the latter: "Thanks. By the way, have you checked out your own Arabic feeds? I hope you know we read those too."

The US embassy feed is run by Larry Schwartz, the senior policy officer responsible for the controversial American statement released just after the protests started.

Continued aid to Egypt is just throwing good money after bad.

Children to Be Their Rulers

One of the important concepts of understanding Biblical prophecy is to understand that many of the prophecies are dualistic: they may have been fulfilled, or partly fulfilled, in ancient times, but also are applicable to the latter-days.

With that in mind, as I look back at how our national leaders have failed to do anything to mitigate the financial and debt crises they helped manufacture, and the bumbling about on foreign policy, I am reminded of this from Isaiah 3:

For, behold, the Lord, the Lord of hosts, doth take away from Jerusalem and from Judah ... [t]he mighty man, and the man of war, the judge, and the prophet, and the prudent, and the ancient, ... [a]nd I will give children to be their princes, and babes shall rule over them.

Isaiah 3:1-2, 4. The Baker Illustrated Bible Commentary indicates that these versus mean that the Lord "will remove the divinely ordained officers and will instead put over the people corrupt leaders who are immature and lacking in experience, like 'youths' and 'children.'" Such has been our doom, too.

San Cristobal Volcano Erupts

A volcano has blasted a huge ash plume three miles into the atmosphere causing the mass evacuation of thousands of nearby residents.

A 30-mile ash cloud quickly descended around San Cristobal, the highest volcano in Nicaragua, central America, after the eruption into the sky on Saturday.

Residents reported hearing three powerful explosions in the volcano as the cloud began billowing skyward and ash drifted over nearby villages.

... The plume formed a cloud extending out across 30-miles from the 5,725-foot San Cristobal volcano, which is situated about 95 miles north of the capital Managua in the country's volcano-dotted northwest, said the Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies (Ineter).

Javier Mejia, executive director of Ineter, which monitors seismic and volcanic activity, said he recommended that civil aviation authorities close down the air space near San Cristobal because of the ash plume and cloud, the largest recorded in recent years.

(Full story, with photos and video, here).

Tornado Strikes New York City...

... in Queens.

A tornado touched down in the New York City borough of Queens this morning, pulling down power lines, throwing around cars and damaging property.

The National Weather Service said in a preliminary report that a tornado may have hit Breezy Point, a neighborhood on the Rockaway Peninsula of Queens.

Tornadoes are extremely rare in the largest and most densely populated U.S. city.

(Full story here).

Matthew Braken Discusses Civil War in the U.S.

A couple of articles from Matthew Braken theorizing about the causes and phases of a second civil war in the United States. 

The first article explores what Braken refers to as the "meta-terrain" of such a conflict--basically the different, polarized groups that will be pushing the conflict. He conceptualizes these groups through what he refers to as the CW2 Cube:

Before we move on to the cube, let’s begin with the CW2 Square. The cube is best tackled in another step. Draw the square and label one axis Poorer to Richer. Label the other axis Darker to Lighter. Darker, for brevity, includes African-Americans, Hispanics and so on. Lighter refers to those of European ancestry. The two opposed meta-groups are the poorer and darker versus the richer and lighter, or whiter if you wish to be blunt. The richer/whiter have the power of their wealth, but counterbalancing that advantage is the fact that the poorer/darker have succeeded in wresting control of much of government power. This is so, even if most of their elected leaders are anything but poor or dark.

... Filling one corner of the CW2 Square will be the poorer and darker, who primarily are liberal and progressive Democrats who believe in a malleable “living Constitution.” And in the other corner will be the richer and whiter, who mainly are conservative or libertarian Republicans who believe in the original intent of the written Constitution. Again, keep your eyes on the two meta-cores, not the exceptions.

Now, let’s add the third dimension and shoot another axis out from the square to form the CW2 Cube. Label the third axis Urban versus Rural, or City versus Country if you prefer. This axis gives a geographical dimension to the meta-terrain, but there will be no convenient dividing line between the opposed sides as there was during the first civil war. It has frequently been observed that today’s red-blue political map is better understood at the county than at the state level. Even blue states like Illinois, California and New York are rural-red outside of their blue urban cores. Obviously, these urban cores are heavily populated but geographically small, with all that means to the electoral process today and to a possible civil war later.

So the opposing corners of the CW2 Cube can be seen as the poorer, darker cities versus the richer, whiter rural areas. Again, don’t quibble about outliers. Yes, there are a few rich, conservative African-Americans living in Wyoming, many poor white liberal Democrats in rural West Virginia, some rich conservatives in San Francisco and every other exceptional case imaginable.

Most of us live in the mushy, mongrel middle, far from the tips of the two opposite corners. But the centers of gravity of Civil War Two shall be as I have described: the relatively richer, whiter and more rural against the poorer, darker and urban. One can also propose many more axes of conflict than can fit on a cube, such as the religious versus the non-believers, socialists versus capitalists, statists versus individualists and so on. However, after you reflect upon the CW2 Cube, I think you will find that most of these extra axes can be overlaid parallel to one of the three already posited.

... One repeated lesson of modern civil war is that there is inherently dangerous, even fatal terrain. Some of this predictably-dangerous terrain is often highly desirable and even advantageous before the outbreak of civil war.

To begin: you do not want to live as a trapped and cut-off minority in what might become “enemy territory.” If you live amidst your civil war enemies, as defined and located within the CW2 Cube, you will be in mortal danger even if your immediate neighbors know, love and respect you. Those persons who have a stake in fanning the flames of CW2 (and their number shall be legion), will intentionally target those remaining “holdouts” who may be respected minority neighbors. (In this essay, minority means “the minority within a given group or area.” Blacks are the majority in some areas, and whites are the minorities in others, and so on.)

Frequently in modern civil wars, roaming armed groups (in or out of uniform) will even force people to kill their own beloved and respected minority neighbors as an ultimate loyalty test. If they refuse, they may themselves be killed as “traitors.” Besides pre-conflict racists and radicals, there will be an ever-increasing pool of persons attempting to expel minorities from their homes. Those embittered unfortunates who have already been ethnically cleansed will be seeking new living quarters, and the homes and property of “enemy” minorities still living in majority territory will be the first on the chopping block. (Not the auction block, because payment of any kind is rarely offered.) This process of minority eviction becomes self-perpetuating.

Often, those members of minorities who escape as refugees are the lucky ones who do not lose their lives during the back-and-forth of escalating violence. The fact that they may have been loved, admired and respected for many years by their majority-population neighbors will not protect them. This is a clear lesson of modern civil war. Another is that while the rich or the well-to-do can sometimes hide their wealth and pass as proles, the same cannot be said about concealing one’s racial or ethnic identity. Religious affiliation and political leanings can also be hidden, but outward appearance cannot. Civil War Two may begin on purely political grounds, but it will devolve into something worse.

The second article follows up on the first, but is also a rebuttal to the recent "story"  ("liberal day dream" is probably a better description) published at the Small Wars Journal postulating a TEA party led revolt. Using the CW2 Cube listed above, Braken theorizes about a more likely situation--the financial problems reach a point that there is no more money for the "food stamp" program--and how this may lead to a collapse of public order. He writes:

Instead of a small town in the South as the flash point, picture instead a score of U.S. cities in the thrall of riots greater than those experienced in Los Angeles in 1965 (Watts), multiple cities in 1968 (MLK assassination), and Los Angeles again in 1992 (Rodney King). New Yorkers can imagine the 1977 blackout looting or the 1991 Crown Heights disturbance. In fact, the proximate spark of the next round of major riots in America could be any from a long list cribbed from our history.

We have seen them all before, and we shall see them all again as history rhymes along regardless of the century or the generation of humankind nominally in control of events. But the next time we are visited by widespread, large-scale urban riots, a dangerous new escalation may be triggered by a new vulnerability: It’s estimated that the average American home has less than two weeks of food on hand. In poor minority areas, it may be much less. What if a cascading economic crisis, even a temporary one, leads to millions of EBT (electronic benefit transfer) cards flashing nothing but zeroes? Or if the government’s refusal to reimburse them causes supermarket chains to stop accepting them for payment? The government can order the supermarkets to honor the cards, but history’s verdict is clear: If suppliers are paid only with worthless scrip or blinking digits, the food will stop.

Braken sees the collapse progressing in several phases: (i) flash mob looting (we've already had a taste of flash mobs); (ii) flash mob riots (which will not be able to be contained by police, e.g., the London riots); (iii) armed vigilante response; (iv) and government cracking down on the vigilante response; ad infinitum. Braken notes:

A festering race war with police and the military in the middle taking fire from both sides could last for many years, turning many American cities into a living hell. Remember history: when the British Army landed in Northern Ireland in 1969, they were greeted with flowers and applause from the Catholics. The Tommys were welcomed as peacekeepers who would protect them from Protestant violence. That soon changed. Likewise with our tragic misadventure in Lebanon back in 1982 and 1983. Well-intended referees often find themselves taking fire from all sides. It’s as predictable as tomorrow’s sunrise. Why would it be any different when the U.S. Army is sent to Los Angeles, Chicago or Philadelphia to break apart warring ethnic factions?

... Most of us wish we could turn back the calendar to Norman Rockwell’s America. But we cannot, for that America is water long over the dam and gone from our sight, if not from our memories. John Adams said, “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.” If that is true, judging by current and even accelerating cultural shifts, we might already have passed the point of no return.

It is an interesting scenario, and certainly more believable than the liberal wishful thinking in the Small Wars Journal. However, I believe that he leaves out or diminishes one important axis--those that earn or receive their living from the government versus those that do not. Rome's republican government was not overthrown by a raging urban mob, nor was its Empire bankrupted by bread and circuses.